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welcome to the skeptic zone the podcast

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well welcome to the skeptic zone where

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where r shortly away from the mill a

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crowd richard has been signing

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autographs and doing things with DNA you

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would not believe but here we are there

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it sits on as Richard three two one

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you're on hello and welcome to the

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skeptics are an episode number 190 may

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not can you believe it 190 10 more and

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we get a fruitcake well there are enough

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fruit cakes in the skeptics and I think

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may not but an interesting show coming

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up this week most of it recorded live

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here at what you can hear in the

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background Sydney skeptics in the pub at

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the coronation hotel first thursday of

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every month hmm yes that's right we're

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going to kick off with Iran so give the

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president of Australian skeptics in our

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reporter giving a talk here at skeptics

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in the pub all about skepticism and

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evidence well they've been on art and I

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want to pin him down and talk about

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count some counterintuitive things that

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goes against his argument you do yeah

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I'll probably lose but I don't mind

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losing an argument well you're the sort

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of fruitcake we need on the skeptic zone

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and I think and what else we got on the

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show it's you it's your spooky action at

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a distance asking questions here at the

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pub yes I've been asking people some

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monumental questions and I can't

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understand any of their answers but you

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edit it up and I'm sure it'll be cool

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but our listeners understand me now

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that's the important thing oh and look

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once more I want to throw out to

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everyone out there i am going to Tam

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thank you to the generosity of the

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listeners if you need and if there is

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any question you want me to ask of any

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particular person email me and let me

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know so I can ask it for them that's

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right now where should they email you

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mean look they can send it through my

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website at Maynard com do you or they

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can send it to the skeptic zone and if I

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find that person I mean look I now be

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meeting George rabaah now now be meeting

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mr. spa thinker himself the guy whose

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brain never fails you mean Dunning

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Dunning the mighty Dunning would happen

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I'll be talking to him and and maybe

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perhaps James around himself and I'm

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really high really want to talk to Penn

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Jillette I don't know if that's going to

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happen but I'm gonna try might happen

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we'll see what we can arrange them so if

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you've got questions for those people

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I'll try and take them and ask them for

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you it's the least I can do for the

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listeners for helping get me that thank

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you again listeners it's because of you

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that may not is going to Las Vegas

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fantastic work but I think may not i

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think we've waffled on long enough and

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i'm sure the listeners are out there

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they're in there in dec stop waffling on

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their in their cars the jogging they're

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doing the dishes they're cleaning the

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house what else are Alice was doing

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they've got the earbuds deep inside

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their canals yes and they're dying to

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hear the skeptic zones I'm going to go

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back to the bar grab another glass of

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champagne and we could all enjoy the

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let's all take this with a grain of salt

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seas around ticket there's no need to

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introduce today's speaker because it's

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me so my name is Ron and I'm the

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president of Australian skeptics the

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subject of my talk today is about

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assessing evidence now the reason I

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started thinking about that in the past

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obviously we're all interested in

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evidence that's what skeptics do but the

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reason I really started to concentrate

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on on that is because I receive google

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alerts related to Australian skeptics

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and what I noticed was that a lot of the

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alert was getting were related to

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climate change skeptics who were how we

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happen to be Australians and there's

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plenty of those there's also been

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recently you're probably aware thats

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amaryl dory this is the time where

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everybody says good yeah exactly she's

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opened their website just called

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Australian skeptics with a seat calm and

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the subject of the title of the website

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is the real australian skeptics now such

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miss uses of the word skeptic are not

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new and part of the problem is that they

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can't even be considered to be

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completely illegitimate because there is

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a there is probably one interpretation

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of the word or one definition of the

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word that would refer to it as being

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simply doubting but when we speak about

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skepticism in this room I think we're

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all clear that what it really means is

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that we look at evidence and we try to

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find out what's true and what's not true

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that's what we want to know what's the

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distinction between true and false and

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that distinction between true and false

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is made based on evidence so if you care

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about if you care about what's true and

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false you have to evaluate evidence and

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when you when there is something some

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claim that attracts enough evidence it

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is appropriate for a scientific skeptic

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for critical thinker to suspend

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skepticism to say I'm not as skeptical

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about this anymore and i give this

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whatever it is that we're talking about

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provisional acceptance

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and that's a very important point we

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don't say anything is ever one hundred

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percent true but we give it provisional

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acceptance based on the available

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evidence but it has to be supported by

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sufficient evidence and good quality

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evidence and that's where we come to the

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point of saying what is good quality

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evidence how do we judge the evidence oh

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I'd like to give an example of such a

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situation that is to do with climate

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change climate change if very calm is a

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very complex topic it's not a single

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science it's got if you look at what

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comply what comprises climate science

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you're talking about something that

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comprises atmospheric science

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oceanography plays glaciology geology

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physics chemistry even astronomy is

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involved in this and there I probably

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left a few ologies out the thing is that

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there isn't probably a single person in

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the world who knows something about all

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of these things enough to properly

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evaluate all the evidence and even if

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you look at partial we being able to

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evaluate partial evidence that

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accompanies several of these areas you

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would find that the number of people

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around the world who really grasp the

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science is very small I'd be surprised

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if it's more than a few thousand people

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that really grasp all of the signs yet

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if you talk to people in anywhere

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definitely in this room people have a

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lot of opinions they'll have an opinion

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about climate climate change and i'm not

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talking about having an opinion about

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climate change in the sense of oh I

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don't like carbon tax I don't like the

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carbon tax or I do like the carbon tax

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I'm talking about saying yeah the

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science is true or the science is not

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true I don't think that's an accident I

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think the reason people form an opinion

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about something like climate change is

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because they feel very strongly about

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it's something that could affect our

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life and there is also a sense in the

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media there's a confusing message in the

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media about how big it is and you know

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like if it's true we're all going to die

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which is by the way to we are all going

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to die but not because of climate change

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so people want to be involved in the

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debate it's something very important how

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do you get involved in the debate if you

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don't have an opinion it's a bit silly

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you just sit there and listen and say oh

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yeah maybe you're right maybe you're

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right people form an opinion

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basically because they want to be

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involved in the world be part of the

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debate the problem is that as Carl Sagan

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once said he said about somebody asked

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him what he's got feeling was about

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something and he said I try not to think

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with my gut I tried to think with my

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brain the problem is that obviously if

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you they're the only way you can if you

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don't understand the evidence if you

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don't if you're unable to judge the

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evidence for yourself you're in the end

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resorting to thinking with your gut and

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that's obviously not a good idea so what

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do you do if you're an interested person

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interested citizen and you want to to

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know what's going on you want to you

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want to format an informed opinion but

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you're not enough of an expert or you

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don't know enough about the signs to

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actually judge whether something is true

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or false you need to have some you to

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assess the evidence but you can't

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because you're not an expert so what do

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you do well what I'd like to speak about

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today is actually a few rules of thumb

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for assessing evidence and before I

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start I want to point out that these

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rules of thumb do not apply every time

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definitely not all of them apply all the

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time and there are some cases where they

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do not apply at all I could probably

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think of some cases where they don't

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apply at all but as a guide they're

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pretty good for assessing evidence on

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areas in which you feel that you need to

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form an opinion I'll move away from

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climate change for a little bit because

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I don't want anybody to I don't want to

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start a fight here but i'll start with

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simpler topics not also some of them

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will not be even from the from the realm

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of science let's start with rule number

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one the first rule is Occam's razor

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Occam's razor is a principle that says

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that it entities shall not be multiplied

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unnecessarily now a less 14th century

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way of saying that is that a simpler

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explanation takes precedence over a more

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complex one I'll give you an example

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there are errors errors of policy or

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neglect by governments you could take

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those to be the result of some grand

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conspiracy or you could say that they're

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the result of something like bad luck

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laziness toplessness in competence now

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the first the first one conspiracy

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requires you to assume some grand design

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long-term planning

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lawless execution and the ability to

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keep a secret for a very very long time

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by government the other one requires you

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to us to expect that people in

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government remember government is not

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some organization some body it's its

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people it's made out of people it

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requires people in government to have

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normal human frailties so I'm sure you

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all understand where I'm going with this

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but basically one is simple and

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straightforward and the other word the

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other one requires a much more elaborate

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explanation that probably requires us to

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go a little bit further and deeper and

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raises more questions another example is

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evolution vs creation evolution produces

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amazingly complex results people are you

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know capable of deciding to go to a pub

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on Thursday for example but despite the

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complex results the process itself is

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actually very simple all that's required

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to start evolution is some semi-stable

273
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replicators and this the likes of which

274
00:10:56,680 --> 00:10:54,410
were the precursors to the DNA in the in

275
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the cells of every living thing it

276
00:11:03,970 --> 00:11:00,230
creation requires one very very short

277
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word that is God now God is a very

278
00:11:08,410 --> 00:11:05,660
simple explanation if you're in a

279
00:11:10,510 --> 00:11:08,420
spelling contest but if you're actually

280
00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:10,520
trying to explain evolution it isn't

281
00:11:14,530 --> 00:11:12,530
simple at all it raises a whole host of

282
00:11:17,050 --> 00:11:14,540
new questions it is not a simple

283
00:11:19,030 --> 00:11:17,060
explanation it's a very large assumption

284
00:11:20,980 --> 00:11:19,040
that needs to be explained in its own

285
00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:20,990
right and is therefore therefore

286
00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:22,730
complicates matters quite significantly

287
00:11:28,510 --> 00:11:24,770
and is therefore not suitable

288
00:11:30,730 --> 00:11:28,520
explanation based on Occam's razor now

289
00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:30,740
obviously it is possible for the more

290
00:11:36,070 --> 00:11:32,810
complex explanation to be true as

291
00:11:39,510 --> 00:11:36,080
opposed to the simpler one but for that

292
00:11:41,470 --> 00:11:39,520
to happen requires quite extraordinary

293
00:11:44,230 --> 00:11:41,480
circumstances and we if we talk about

294
00:11:46,630 --> 00:11:44,240
extra extraordinary circumstances I have

295
00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:46,640
to quote Carl Sagan once again in what's

296
00:11:51,390 --> 00:11:49,610
called Sagan's balance because they can

297
00:11:54,900 --> 00:11:51,400
said that extraordinary claims require

298
00:11:58,750 --> 00:11:54,910
extraordinary evidence and that is our

299
00:12:01,930 --> 00:11:58,760
second rule an example of an

300
00:12:03,340 --> 00:12:01,940
extraordinary claim is that if you take

301
00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:03,350
a substance

302
00:12:08,860 --> 00:12:07,370
and you dilute it on water to such a

303
00:12:10,990 --> 00:12:08,870
degree where there's not even a single

304
00:12:13,990 --> 00:12:11,000
molecule left of the original material

305
00:12:16,420 --> 00:12:14,000
but you basically have water that

306
00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:16,430
material that that dilution will somehow

307
00:12:20,590 --> 00:12:18,850
cure the same symptoms that the original

308
00:12:23,050 --> 00:12:20,600
material would of course of course

309
00:12:24,870 --> 00:12:23,060
that's what homeopaths claim happens

310
00:12:28,230 --> 00:12:24,880
that's what homeopathy is all about and

311
00:12:31,990 --> 00:12:28,240
if that were true then for example

312
00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:32,000
caffeine diluted to that to such a

313
00:12:37,450 --> 00:12:34,370
degree to a mere pathak levels would

314
00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:37,460
cure insomnia and indeed that's what

315
00:12:43,030 --> 00:12:40,370
homeopaths a does but he doesn't now the

316
00:12:46,330 --> 00:12:43,040
reason that this claim is extraordinary

317
00:12:48,340 --> 00:12:46,340
is not just because it sounds funny it's

318
00:12:50,260 --> 00:12:48,350
because for it to be true requires

319
00:12:53,890 --> 00:12:50,270
almost everything we know about physics

320
00:12:56,590 --> 00:12:53,900
chemistry physiology and pharmacology to

321
00:12:59,860 --> 00:12:56,600
be wrong not just a little bit wrong but

322
00:13:02,200 --> 00:12:59,870
completely wrong which means that it's

323
00:13:04,900 --> 00:13:02,210
extremely implausible that homeopathy

324
00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:04,910
would be true now again that doesn't

325
00:13:09,250 --> 00:13:07,370
mean it's wrong it just means it's

326
00:13:11,620 --> 00:13:09,260
extremely implausible if you had a

327
00:13:14,550 --> 00:13:11,630
mountain of strong evidence showing that

328
00:13:17,710 --> 00:13:14,560
homeopathy is true then he would be true

329
00:13:19,390 --> 00:13:17,720
it just that obviously there is no such

330
00:13:21,250 --> 00:13:19,400
evidence all the evidence shows that

331
00:13:25,810 --> 00:13:21,260
homeopathy is not just implausible it's

332
00:13:27,490 --> 00:13:25,820
also false and doesn't work the most

333
00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:27,500
common type of evidence for the likes of

334
00:13:32,470 --> 00:13:29,810
homeopathy is in the form of

335
00:13:36,070 --> 00:13:32,480
testimonials another word for

336
00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:36,080
testimonials is anecdotes give an

337
00:13:40,030 --> 00:13:38,450
example of such an anecdote my son got

338
00:13:42,180 --> 00:13:40,040
the MMR vaccine and it caused him to

339
00:13:44,710 --> 00:13:42,190
become autistic it's a very common

340
00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:44,720
testimonial in the anti-vaccine movement

341
00:13:49,870 --> 00:13:48,290
and the problem is such an anecdote is

342
00:13:51,940 --> 00:13:49,880
that it doesn't take into account a lot

343
00:13:53,500 --> 00:13:51,950
of things that can happen for example

344
00:13:55,210 --> 00:13:53,510
one of the reasons that a lot of

345
00:13:57,510 --> 00:13:55,220
children that that link between autism

346
00:13:59,920 --> 00:13:57,520
and vaccines is made is because autism

347
00:14:01,570 --> 00:13:59,930
definitely profound autism is very often

348
00:14:04,030 --> 00:14:01,580
diagnosed around the age of two or three

349
00:14:06,550 --> 00:14:04,040
at a time when kids receive a lot of

350
00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:06,560
vaccines now the fact that two things

351
00:14:12,730 --> 00:14:08,810
happen at the same time doesn't mean

352
00:14:14,980 --> 00:14:12,740
that they're necessarily related and an

353
00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:14,990
anecdote doesn't have the ability to

354
00:14:19,420 --> 00:14:16,850
distinguish between

355
00:14:21,009 --> 00:14:19,430
two things happening together by chance

356
00:14:24,249 --> 00:14:21,019
or because there's a causal relationship

357
00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:24,259
between them millions of children

358
00:14:29,590 --> 00:14:27,130
receive millions of exceeds every year

359
00:14:31,809 --> 00:14:29,600
now some of them will be diagnosed as

360
00:14:33,309 --> 00:14:31,819
autistic at the same time so you could

361
00:14:36,069 --> 00:14:33,319
say oh well it was caused because of

362
00:14:37,540 --> 00:14:36,079
that but the reality is that some of the

363
00:14:39,999 --> 00:14:37,550
children will at the same time be

364
00:14:41,740 --> 00:14:40,009
diagnosed as being very bright some of

365
00:14:43,749 --> 00:14:41,750
them will be diagnosed as being

366
00:14:45,699 --> 00:14:43,759
short-sighted some of them will be

367
00:14:48,340 --> 00:14:45,709
diagnosed as being I don't know we'll

368
00:14:50,410 --> 00:14:48,350
have a weak leg or just or something

369
00:14:53,259 --> 00:14:50,420
else something some of them will have

370
00:14:55,509 --> 00:14:53,269
cancer around that time it happens the

371
00:14:57,819 --> 00:14:55,519
thing is that to show a relationship

372
00:15:00,340 --> 00:14:57,829
between them you need to do some

373
00:15:02,590 --> 00:15:00,350
statistics and statistics by its very

374
00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:02,600
nature cannot be done on one case in an

375
00:15:05,740 --> 00:15:04,730
anecdote is one case for example in the

376
00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:05,750
case of what we're talking about here

377
00:15:10,900 --> 00:15:09,050
autistic autism caused by vaccinations

378
00:15:13,150 --> 00:15:10,910
what you need is to compare large

379
00:15:14,740 --> 00:15:13,160
populations of vaccinate vaccinated

380
00:15:16,420 --> 00:15:14,750
children against non-vaccinated children

381
00:15:18,639 --> 00:15:16,430
and to see whether the prevalence or

382
00:15:20,590 --> 00:15:18,649
incidence of autism is different between

383
00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:20,600
the two groups the answer by the way is

384
00:15:26,199 --> 00:15:24,410
no it isn't the next rule is that it's

385
00:15:28,870 --> 00:15:26,209
based on that in that and that is the

386
00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:28,880
multiple of anecdote is not evidence and

387
00:15:33,009 --> 00:15:31,610
the corollary to that by the way is that

388
00:15:34,569 --> 00:15:33,019
a single anecdote is definitely not

389
00:15:36,550 --> 00:15:34,579
evidence so if somebody comes to you and

390
00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:36,560
says oh well but it happened to me say

391
00:15:41,499 --> 00:15:39,050
well good on you but I won't take that

392
00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:41,509
as evidence to anything because you

393
00:15:44,889 --> 00:15:43,130
might be completely true correct and it

394
00:15:46,780 --> 00:15:44,899
may even be true that there is a causal

395
00:15:48,879 --> 00:15:46,790
relationship there but your anecdote

396
00:15:51,639 --> 00:15:48,889
does not prove that the next rule the

397
00:15:54,910 --> 00:15:51,649
fourth rule is that experts do no more

398
00:15:57,730 --> 00:15:54,920
if you want to fix something electrical

399
00:16:00,879 --> 00:15:57,740
in your house you can go to somebody who

400
00:16:04,809 --> 00:16:00,889
has gone to take for a few years to

401
00:16:06,999 --> 00:16:04,819
study to be an electrician then did an

402
00:16:10,269 --> 00:16:07,009
apprenticeship for a few years and then

403
00:16:12,879 --> 00:16:10,279
spend the last ten years putting many

404
00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:12,889
kilometres of cables and and switch

405
00:16:17,530 --> 00:16:14,810
boxes and all kinds of things around

406
00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:17,540
houses everywhere or you can take some

407
00:16:26,199 --> 00:16:21,970
kind of handy man who can replace a

408
00:16:27,879 --> 00:16:26,209
faulty socket and I think everybody in

409
00:16:29,470 --> 00:16:27,889
this room would accept any not just in

410
00:16:30,140 --> 00:16:29,480
this room I think most people in the

411
00:16:31,850 --> 00:16:30,150
world will excel

412
00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:31,860
that the electrician knows a lot more

413
00:16:37,310 --> 00:16:33,930
about electricity and about electrical

414
00:16:38,990 --> 00:16:37,320
work than the handyman because he's an

415
00:16:41,690 --> 00:16:39,000
expert it's what he's been doing that's

416
00:16:42,740 --> 00:16:41,700
what he has leather is retained a lot of

417
00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:42,750
knowledge over the years that he's been

418
00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:46,370
doing it similarly a GP knows more about

419
00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:50,130
vaccinations then somebody who has a

420
00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:51,690
brain or claims to have a brain and it's

421
00:16:58,880 --> 00:16:55,410
been doing research on Google and an

422
00:17:01,820 --> 00:16:58,890
expert on infectious diseases knows more

423
00:17:03,470 --> 00:17:01,830
about vaccinations than the GP because

424
00:17:05,780 --> 00:17:03,480
it's his specialty that's what he's been

425
00:17:08,300 --> 00:17:05,790
doing or she's been doing and that's

426
00:17:10,820 --> 00:17:08,310
what they've been studying so experts do

427
00:17:12,230 --> 00:17:10,830
no more and by the way as if because

428
00:17:14,210 --> 00:17:12,240
I've already mentioned climate giant

429
00:17:17,300 --> 00:17:14,220
climate science I should mention that a

430
00:17:19,550 --> 00:17:17,310
veteran atmospheric scientist knows more

431
00:17:21,829 --> 00:17:19,560
about climate change than a geologist

432
00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:21,839
and it's not because geology doesn't

433
00:17:24,650 --> 00:17:23,010
have anything to do with climate change

434
00:17:27,199 --> 00:17:24,660
it's because it has a lot less to do

435
00:17:30,110 --> 00:17:27,209
with climate change then our atmospheric

436
00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:30,120
science listening to a specialist expert

437
00:17:36,230 --> 00:17:33,690
is not foolproof and we'll talk in a

438
00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:36,240
moment about the whole issue of argument

439
00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:37,890
from authority when you listen to us you

440
00:17:42,470 --> 00:17:39,810
choose your expert and you listen to

441
00:17:44,900 --> 00:17:42,480
just one person that's that's an issue

442
00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:44,910
in its own right but if you have to

443
00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:46,770
choose between listening to that guy I

444
00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:48,570
mentioned earlier or that girl in the

445
00:17:52,550 --> 00:17:50,730
case that we know very well it claims to

446
00:17:55,460 --> 00:17:52,560
have a brain and be doing research on on

447
00:17:57,260 --> 00:17:55,470
the internet choose the expert because

448
00:18:00,170 --> 00:17:57,270
the ex but is much more likely to lead

449
00:18:02,630 --> 00:18:00,180
you down the right path the fifth rule

450
00:18:04,370 --> 00:18:02,640
is a bit of an argument amalgamation of

451
00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:04,380
the previous rules and in particular

452
00:18:08,540 --> 00:18:06,090
it's something that takes care of the

453
00:18:12,590 --> 00:18:08,550
issue of argument from authority and if

454
00:18:15,110 --> 00:18:12,600
that is trust science not a scientist

455
00:18:17,060 --> 00:18:15,120
but science in general now obviously

456
00:18:19,670 --> 00:18:17,070
when I when I talk about science in in

457
00:18:21,980 --> 00:18:19,680
the context of this talk I'm referring

458
00:18:23,360 --> 00:18:21,990
not to the science of chemistry or the

459
00:18:25,190 --> 00:18:23,370
signs of physical I'm talking about the

460
00:18:27,260 --> 00:18:25,200
scientific method I'm talking about the

461
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:27,270
process of science which is obviously a

462
00:18:32,900 --> 00:18:30,450
self-correcting process in which the

463
00:18:34,490 --> 00:18:32,910
ultimate goal of the participants is to

464
00:18:36,980 --> 00:18:34,500
determine whether something is true or

465
00:18:39,230 --> 00:18:36,990
not with what the evidence shows and the

466
00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:39,240
they are the final arbiter of what's

467
00:18:44,029 --> 00:18:43,410
true or not is the evidence not one one

468
00:18:48,889 --> 00:18:44,039
person

469
00:18:52,310 --> 00:18:48,899
since the participants in this process

470
00:18:54,769 --> 00:18:52,320
which we also know as scientists are

471
00:18:56,779 --> 00:18:54,779
human the process doesn't always run

472
00:18:58,869 --> 00:18:56,789
smoothly or flawlessly there's always

473
00:19:01,340 --> 00:18:58,879
problems along the way so you do find

474
00:19:03,710 --> 00:19:01,350
faulty argument you do find faulty

475
00:19:05,889 --> 00:19:03,720
papers you do find faulty research along

476
00:19:09,049 --> 00:19:05,899
the way but time and again this

477
00:19:12,190 --> 00:19:09,059
self-correcting method of principles of

478
00:19:14,570 --> 00:19:12,200
science ensure that over time and

479
00:19:16,609 --> 00:19:14,580
through a lot of research by many

480
00:19:19,999 --> 00:19:16,619
different people we actually get closer

481
00:19:21,919 --> 00:19:20,009
and closer to the truth an example a

482
00:19:24,969 --> 00:19:21,929
great example of that is the famous case

483
00:19:27,799 --> 00:19:24,979
of Barry Marshall and Robin Warren who

484
00:19:29,299 --> 00:19:27,809
despite what everybody knew for many

485
00:19:34,129 --> 00:19:29,309
years with that peptic ulcers were

486
00:19:35,210 --> 00:19:34,139
caused by by stress found that peptic

487
00:19:38,629 --> 00:19:35,220
ulcers were actually caused by a

488
00:19:41,389 --> 00:19:38,639
bacterium called helicobacter pylori and

489
00:19:43,460 --> 00:19:41,399
that it can be treated by antibiotics it

490
00:19:45,979 --> 00:19:43,470
wasn't accepted straight away it took a

491
00:19:48,950 --> 00:19:45,989
while he was common knowledge it was a

492
00:19:51,109 --> 00:19:48,960
consensus that stress was causing ulcers

493
00:19:53,710 --> 00:19:51,119
and he took them a while to prove it but

494
00:19:55,729 --> 00:19:53,720
once they proved it once they proved it

495
00:19:58,639 --> 00:19:55,739
everybody changed their mind you will

496
00:20:00,109 --> 00:19:58,649
not find a single well maybe a single

497
00:20:02,539 --> 00:20:00,119
you will find you somebody who also

498
00:20:04,669 --> 00:20:02,549
doesn't vaccinate there but you'll find

499
00:20:07,159 --> 00:20:04,679
maybe a few doctors but the vast

500
00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:07,169
majority of scientists and doctors and

501
00:20:11,749 --> 00:20:09,570
medical professionals of various kinds

502
00:20:14,509 --> 00:20:11,759
will accept now that when you have

503
00:20:16,310 --> 00:20:14,519
ulcers you need to take antibiotics this

504
00:20:18,830 --> 00:20:16,320
and you get treatment and that's they

505
00:20:20,419 --> 00:20:18,840
will resolve the problem and these

506
00:20:21,830 --> 00:20:20,429
things happen you know you have some you

507
00:20:24,409 --> 00:20:21,840
have some idea you have some hypotheses

508
00:20:27,129 --> 00:20:24,419
you have some thought about the way

509
00:20:29,539 --> 00:20:27,139
things are like stress causes ulcers and

510
00:20:31,099 --> 00:20:29,549
it's you know and then the facts are

511
00:20:34,549 --> 00:20:31,109
shown the evidence is shown and that

512
00:20:37,879 --> 00:20:34,559
hypothesis that theory goes away th

513
00:20:39,950 --> 00:20:37,889
Huxley who was known as Darwin's bulldog

514
00:20:41,899 --> 00:20:39,960
once said something something that we

515
00:20:44,349 --> 00:20:41,909
like he said that the traded tragedy of

516
00:20:47,930 --> 00:20:44,359
science is a beautiful hypothesis

517
00:20:49,729 --> 00:20:47,940
destroyed by an ugly fact so obviously

518
00:20:52,279 --> 00:20:49,739
in this case there's no ugly and

519
00:20:54,730 --> 00:20:52,289
beautiful but but that's what what's

520
00:20:58,660 --> 00:20:54,740
important the facts are what's important

521
00:21:00,640 --> 00:20:58,670
now it's worth knowing or pointing out

522
00:21:04,419 --> 00:21:00,650
that science scientific knowledge

523
00:21:06,430 --> 00:21:04,429
doesn't evolve in a vacuum we know a lot

524
00:21:08,169 --> 00:21:06,440
about science we know we have a lot of

525
00:21:10,510 --> 00:21:08,179
signs when we start to interrogate a

526
00:21:12,100 --> 00:21:10,520
specific question and we have to rely on

527
00:21:16,870 --> 00:21:12,110
that I want to ask you a question here

528
00:21:20,980 --> 00:21:16,880
how do we know the moon okay we before

529
00:21:25,830 --> 00:21:20,990
69 how did we know the moon was not made

530
00:21:28,450 --> 00:21:25,840
of green cheese near the question before

531
00:21:34,060 --> 00:21:28,460
1969 how did we know the moon was not

532
00:21:39,850 --> 00:21:34,070
made of green cheese sorry spectroscopy

533
00:21:44,049 --> 00:21:39,860
okay yeah Ian theory okay what just a

534
00:21:45,790 --> 00:21:44,059
theory josh says he didn't taste good so

535
00:21:49,330 --> 00:21:45,800
we had three we had three answers here

536
00:21:51,430 --> 00:21:49,340
spectroscopy theory and that he didn't

537
00:21:53,230 --> 00:21:51,440
taste so good now I want to give you the

538
00:21:56,340 --> 00:21:53,240
answer and it will sound like I'm being

539
00:21:58,330 --> 00:21:56,350
facetious but I'm not the reason we knew

540
00:22:00,910 --> 00:21:58,340
very good somebody said it was

541
00:22:02,770 --> 00:22:00,920
implausible the reason we know it was

542
00:22:04,540 --> 00:22:02,780
not it's not it was not made of green

543
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:04,550
cheese is because it's absurd to think

544
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:06,770
that it's maybe a cheese we know that we

545
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:08,890
know about we know enough about

546
00:22:14,710 --> 00:22:10,970
planetary formation we know about

547
00:22:17,470 --> 00:22:14,720
gravity we know enough about cheese yeah

548
00:22:19,900 --> 00:22:17,480
we know enough about cheese to know that

549
00:22:21,250 --> 00:22:19,910
it's so extremely unlikely that the moon

550
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:21,260
is great made of green cheese that is

551
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:25,010
not worth considering yeah absolutely

552
00:22:30,970 --> 00:22:28,970
true but you mentioned spectroscopy we

553
00:22:33,310 --> 00:22:30,980
had we knew the science of spectroscopy

554
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:33,320
there was previous science that allowed

555
00:22:38,290 --> 00:22:35,210
us to assess the moon without actually

556
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:38,300
going there now we 969 we went there we

557
00:22:46,660 --> 00:22:42,050
landed well not we Neil Neil landed and

558
00:22:49,660 --> 00:22:46,670
didn't get stuck into the cheesy surface

559
00:22:51,850 --> 00:22:49,670
of the moon so now we know for sure but

560
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:51,860
we but just that you mentioned yourself

561
00:22:57,760 --> 00:22:55,850
there was this we had signs that it was

562
00:22:59,950 --> 00:22:57,770
available to us that allows us to assess

563
00:23:01,299 --> 00:22:59,960
it before we actually looked into it in

564
00:23:02,590 --> 00:23:01,309
more detail so we have a fairly good

565
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:02,600
idea of what the cheese there with the

566
00:23:07,360 --> 00:23:05,690
moon is made of and it's not cheese yeah

567
00:23:08,350 --> 00:23:07,370
rachel was looking forward to the next

568
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:08,360
trip to the moon

569
00:23:12,370 --> 00:23:10,610
for a non-scientist to evaluate the

570
00:23:15,190 --> 00:23:12,380
state of the ordinance on a specific

571
00:23:18,730 --> 00:23:15,200
scientific question requires to evaluate

572
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:18,740
essentially two questions now one of

573
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:21,890
them is has proper scientific process

574
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:24,410
being followed and so in other words

575
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:26,210
were there are no obvious failings in

576
00:23:30,430 --> 00:23:27,770
the process of arriving at a certain

577
00:23:32,169 --> 00:23:30,440
conclusion and the other one is whether

578
00:23:34,660 --> 00:23:32,179
there is a scientific consensus on the

579
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:34,670
topic that we're discussing both

580
00:23:38,740 --> 00:23:36,290
questions need to be answered in the

581
00:23:41,169 --> 00:23:38,750
affirmative or at least not answered in

582
00:23:43,210 --> 00:23:41,179
the negative for us to say yes it looks

583
00:23:45,970 --> 00:23:43,220
like we know what the answer is about

584
00:23:47,470 --> 00:23:45,980
this about science at the moment I want

585
00:23:50,919 --> 00:23:47,480
to talk about scientific consensus it's

586
00:23:53,980 --> 00:23:50,929
a bit of a controversial term people

587
00:23:57,250 --> 00:23:53,990
very often think that it's something to

588
00:24:00,700 --> 00:23:57,260
do with democracy in science nothing

589
00:24:03,549 --> 00:24:00,710
like that at all scientific consensus

590
00:24:06,039 --> 00:24:03,559
arises when the majority of working

591
00:24:08,740 --> 00:24:06,049
scientists in a specific field or area

592
00:24:12,310 --> 00:24:08,750
and the majority of organizations in

593
00:24:15,580 --> 00:24:12,320
that specific field or area and the vast

594
00:24:19,750 --> 00:24:15,590
majority of scientific papers regarding

595
00:24:21,820 --> 00:24:19,760
that area all point in roughly the same

596
00:24:24,159 --> 00:24:21,830
direction and the world roughly is very

597
00:24:26,860 --> 00:24:24,169
important they don't all have to point

598
00:24:30,810 --> 00:24:26,870
do you know if it's okay if some of them

599
00:24:34,150 --> 00:24:30,820
point northeast some of them Northwest

600
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:34,160
but very few but if they're very very

601
00:24:39,700 --> 00:24:36,770
few out of let's say thousands and only

602
00:24:42,460 --> 00:24:39,710
three points south and all the rest

603
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:42,470
point between southeast northeast and

604
00:24:47,409 --> 00:24:44,450
northwest then we can be pretty sure

605
00:24:49,180 --> 00:24:47,419
that that's the general direction we're

606
00:24:51,789 --> 00:24:49,190
looking at if we talk about climate

607
00:24:53,500 --> 00:24:51,799
change as an as an example what we have

608
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:53,510
here is something science that's being

609
00:24:58,210 --> 00:24:56,690
investigated for something like 50 some

610
00:25:00,280 --> 00:24:58,220
claim 75 years but definitely in the

611
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:00,290
past 50 years it's been looked at and

612
00:25:06,010 --> 00:25:03,770
over that time it hasn't there was no

613
00:25:07,810 --> 00:25:06,020
consensus to begin with definitely no

614
00:25:10,299 --> 00:25:07,820
consensus the consensus really only

615
00:25:13,450 --> 00:25:10,309
started to emerge in the last 15 years

616
00:25:15,220 --> 00:25:13,460
or so maybe even you might even claim

617
00:25:18,870 --> 00:25:15,230
that it's just the last ten years but

618
00:25:22,250 --> 00:25:18,880
definitely 15 years it hasn't a reason

619
00:25:23,660 --> 00:25:22,260
easily or quickly it has taken time

620
00:25:26,060 --> 00:25:23,670
and that's the way it should be

621
00:25:28,900 --> 00:25:26,070
scientists are by their very nature

622
00:25:31,580 --> 00:25:28,910
skeptical when there's some new idea

623
00:25:33,860 --> 00:25:31,590
presented to them they will want to see

624
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:33,870
the evidence and it's been a hard slog

625
00:25:37,610 --> 00:25:36,210
to find all the evidence first of all

626
00:25:39,350 --> 00:25:37,620
it's difficult to collect that evidence

627
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:39,360
secondly it's difficult to analyze that

628
00:25:42,530 --> 00:25:41,010
evidence and then there were not that

629
00:25:43,970 --> 00:25:42,540
many scientists in the field and the

630
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:43,980
number of scientists and number the

631
00:25:48,350 --> 00:25:46,050
amount of Science in the field has grown

632
00:25:50,510 --> 00:25:48,360
over time and more and more scientists

633
00:25:52,940 --> 00:25:50,520
came to appreciate that the evidence

634
00:25:54,530 --> 00:25:52,950
suggests a certain thing basically what

635
00:25:56,660 --> 00:25:54,540
we're saying here is that over time over

636
00:25:59,630 --> 00:25:56,670
the last 50 years more and more

637
00:26:02,780 --> 00:25:59,640
scientists who are experts in the field

638
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:02,790
of climate became convinced by the

639
00:26:08,300 --> 00:26:06,330
evidence okay so that's what a

640
00:26:10,550 --> 00:26:08,310
scientific consensus means and that's a

641
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:10,560
really important point the experts are

642
00:26:15,650 --> 00:26:13,410
convinced by the evidence that's a very

643
00:26:18,710 --> 00:26:15,660
strong point in favor of the scientific

644
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:18,720
consensus now obviously we don't want to

645
00:26:22,550 --> 00:26:20,250
fall for something now whether it's

646
00:26:23,900 --> 00:26:22,560
something that's controversial we want

647
00:26:25,340 --> 00:26:23,910
to listen to what the scientists thought

648
00:26:26,450 --> 00:26:25,350
before the controversy and off the

649
00:26:27,860 --> 00:26:26,460
Conservancy and see whether there's the

650
00:26:30,740 --> 00:26:27,870
difference there but generally

651
00:26:32,750 --> 00:26:30,750
scientists tend to overall as a

652
00:26:33,830 --> 00:26:32,760
consensus get it right specifically with

653
00:26:35,750 --> 00:26:33,840
climate change i've mentioned i

654
00:26:37,220 --> 00:26:35,760
mentioned the process but i don't think

655
00:26:39,020 --> 00:26:37,230
there's any particular reason to suspect

656
00:26:40,490 --> 00:26:39,030
that due process hasn't been followed

657
00:26:42,290 --> 00:26:40,500
it's very difficult to assess the

658
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:42,300
process when you hit without looking at

659
00:26:47,570 --> 00:26:45,210
specific specific papers a specific

660
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:47,580
research and that as i mentioned is very

661
00:26:51,830 --> 00:26:49,410
difficult for most of us I know that if

662
00:26:55,310 --> 00:26:51,840
I had I tried to read some papers

663
00:26:57,290 --> 00:26:55,320
regarding ice cause ice core sampling it

664
00:27:00,350 --> 00:26:57,300
meant so little to me that I felt that I

665
00:27:02,150 --> 00:27:00,360
could easily be convinced either way by

666
00:27:04,460 --> 00:27:02,160
these papers you know if the papers the

667
00:27:07,100 --> 00:27:04,470
paper the same paper if the conclusion

668
00:27:08,630 --> 00:27:07,110
the abstract was when one way or the

669
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:08,640
other I would be equally convinced

670
00:27:11,570 --> 00:27:10,050
because it just meant so little to me

671
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:11,580
and I think most people are like that

672
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:13,050
unless they are in specific field they

673
00:27:17,210 --> 00:27:14,490
can't assess the evidence for themselves

674
00:27:18,860 --> 00:27:17,220
basically we have I have to rely to sin

675
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:18,870
extent on the science but we we can look

676
00:27:22,670 --> 00:27:20,730
at the way the research was done and

677
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:22,680
tried to Steve this obvious holes in the

678
00:27:26,930 --> 00:27:25,290
way it was in the way was conducted in

679
00:27:29,470 --> 00:27:26,940
the case of climate change their climate

680
00:27:32,150 --> 00:27:29,480
science there is a bit of a kind of an

681
00:27:34,580 --> 00:27:32,160
idea that there's maybe either a mass

682
00:27:36,140 --> 00:27:34,590
delusion or a conspiracy among climate

683
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:36,150
climate scientists to

684
00:27:41,900 --> 00:27:39,090
suggest the climate change by human

685
00:27:44,630 --> 00:27:41,910
causes is actually happening but that is

686
00:27:46,310 --> 00:27:44,640
a huge claim in its own right and to say

687
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:46,320
that there is such a conspiracy or mass

688
00:27:49,340 --> 00:27:48,090
delusion you need to present evidence

689
00:27:51,250 --> 00:27:49,350
and I don't believe that there's

690
00:27:53,750 --> 00:27:51,260
evidence that's being presented for that

691
00:27:57,050 --> 00:27:53,760
despite quite a few attempt to do that

692
00:27:58,880 --> 00:27:57,060
and also remember that suggesting a

693
00:28:01,790 --> 00:27:58,890
conspiracy contradicts at least two of

694
00:28:03,770 --> 00:28:01,800
the previous rules so just be aware of

695
00:28:05,630 --> 00:28:03,780
that since both questions in the case of

696
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:05,640
climate change have been answered in the

697
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:08,610
affirmative the theory of climates are

698
00:28:15,050 --> 00:28:11,490
changed by human induced carbon forcing

699
00:28:16,540 --> 00:28:15,060
is likely to be correct to the best of

700
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:16,550
the current scientific knowledge and

701
00:28:21,350 --> 00:28:18,810
I've chosen these words very carefully

702
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:21,360
it's that's the current knowledge it

703
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:23,010
doesn't mean it's necessarily true

704
00:28:27,170 --> 00:28:24,690
doesn't mean that it will always hold

705
00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:27,180
true but it means that we have to grant

706
00:28:34,820 --> 00:28:30,570
it provisional acceptance if we are

707
00:28:37,190 --> 00:28:34,830
skeptics the last rule and that's a very

708
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:37,200
important rule without which all the

709
00:28:41,990 --> 00:28:39,210
rest are not important is that you have

710
00:28:43,490 --> 00:28:42,000
to be willing to change your mind if you

711
00:28:45,110 --> 00:28:43,500
come into this process of trying to

712
00:28:47,030 --> 00:28:45,120
assess the evidence and you're not

713
00:28:49,310 --> 00:28:47,040
willing to change your mind what will

714
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:49,320
happen is that you will find all the

715
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:51,690
evidence to support your position that's

716
00:28:55,910 --> 00:28:53,730
what people do it's natural there's

717
00:28:59,000 --> 00:28:55,920
nothing strange about that that's what

718
00:29:03,380 --> 00:28:59,010
most people will do naturally the thing

719
00:29:06,050 --> 00:29:03,390
is you have to try to be completely open

720
00:29:09,500 --> 00:29:06,060
minded to evidence but not obviously

721
00:29:11,540 --> 00:29:09,510
open minded to just any claim and that's

722
00:29:14,300 --> 00:29:11,550
not an easy thing to do I've thought

723
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:14,310
long and hard about times that I have

724
00:29:17,660 --> 00:29:15,930
changed my mind about something that was

725
00:29:19,850 --> 00:29:17,670
important to me something that I felt

726
00:29:21,650 --> 00:29:19,860
strongly about and I came up with one

727
00:29:23,690 --> 00:29:21,660
example but I'd like you all to think

728
00:29:24,650 --> 00:29:23,700
about examples of your own whether

729
00:29:26,180 --> 00:29:24,660
you've changed your mind about something

730
00:29:28,490 --> 00:29:26,190
that you felt very strongly about and

731
00:29:30,890 --> 00:29:28,500
then contrary evidence came to light and

732
00:29:34,970 --> 00:29:30,900
you change your mind my example is to do

733
00:29:37,460 --> 00:29:34,980
with pain research on rats I strongly

734
00:29:41,420 --> 00:29:37,470
believe that pain research on rats was

735
00:29:43,790 --> 00:29:41,430
both an ethical and useless because the

736
00:29:46,130 --> 00:29:43,800
rat brain is so different to ours that I

737
00:29:48,110 --> 00:29:46,140
I just felt that it was just why would

738
00:29:49,220 --> 00:29:48,120
you hurt rats when you can you can't

739
00:29:50,070 --> 00:29:49,230
find anything about the human brain

740
00:29:52,289 --> 00:29:50,080
because of it

741
00:29:54,750 --> 00:29:52,299
that but that was the way I've thought

742
00:29:55,980 --> 00:29:54,760
about it for four years that was my my

743
00:29:57,600 --> 00:29:55,990
view and I felt that he was strongly

744
00:30:01,200 --> 00:29:57,610
supported by science actually knew what

745
00:30:03,570 --> 00:30:01,210
was happening in in labs with rats I

746
00:30:05,759 --> 00:30:03,580
knew how do in order to study pain in

747
00:30:07,889 --> 00:30:05,769
rats strangely enough you have to hurt

748
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:07,899
them and which is something that I felt

749
00:30:13,019 --> 00:30:09,970
was not you know you have to only do it

750
00:30:15,180 --> 00:30:13,029
if it's absolutely but if the results of

751
00:30:17,430 --> 00:30:15,190
the study the studies are very valuable

752
00:30:21,330 --> 00:30:17,440
to you and I felt that that wasn't the

753
00:30:23,370 --> 00:30:21,340
case one day we had dinner with friends

754
00:30:25,379 --> 00:30:23,380
and done one of the friends brought her

755
00:30:27,450 --> 00:30:25,389
parents with her and they're both

756
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:27,460
professors of biology and I somehow the

757
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:30,370
conversation turned to pain and then to

758
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:32,490
rats and I said what I thought about

759
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:36,250
pain research in rats and one of the

760
00:30:42,060 --> 00:30:38,970
professors said I think the wording was

761
00:30:44,580 --> 00:30:42,070
everything we know about pain comes from

762
00:30:47,490 --> 00:30:44,590
research on rats and I kind of smiled

763
00:30:48,750 --> 00:30:47,500
smugly and debated it for a while and it

764
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:48,760
became quite clear that the professor

765
00:30:52,799 --> 00:30:51,610
knew what he was talking about and I

766
00:30:54,570 --> 00:30:52,809
went to need some more research and

767
00:30:56,039 --> 00:30:54,580
looked at it looked at looks at the

768
00:30:59,250 --> 00:30:56,049
volume of papers looked at what some of

769
00:31:00,600 --> 00:30:59,260
the papers said and became quite clear

770
00:31:02,430 --> 00:31:00,610
that it was simply wrong I wasn't a

771
00:31:04,889 --> 00:31:02,440
little bit wrong I wasn't you know just

772
00:31:07,169 --> 00:31:04,899
maybe not looking at it the right way

773
00:31:09,629 --> 00:31:07,179
the right way exactly I was completely

774
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:09,639
wrong indeed as the professor said

775
00:31:15,899 --> 00:31:12,010
everything we know about pain in humans

776
00:31:18,139 --> 00:31:15,909
is it comes from research on rats I've

777
00:31:20,970 --> 00:31:18,149
changed my mind and it's something that

778
00:31:23,159 --> 00:31:20,980
was a very strong very strong point for

779
00:31:25,470 --> 00:31:23,169
me being able to actually have an

780
00:31:27,509 --> 00:31:25,480
example like that and I urge you to all

781
00:31:29,460 --> 00:31:27,519
find an example like that first of all

782
00:31:31,049 --> 00:31:29,470
so when somebody challenges you to say

783
00:31:32,419 --> 00:31:31,059
oh yeah so when did you ever change your

784
00:31:35,070 --> 00:31:32,429
mind you can have something in your

785
00:31:37,139 --> 00:31:35,080
toolkit for that but also because i

786
00:31:39,330 --> 00:31:37,149
think it's an empowering an empowering

787
00:31:40,649 --> 00:31:39,340
thing personally to know that you can

788
00:31:42,509 --> 00:31:40,659
change your mind about something you

789
00:31:44,639 --> 00:31:42,519
feel strongly about when evidence is

790
00:31:49,379 --> 00:31:44,649
presented that contradicts you previous

791
00:31:50,730 --> 00:31:49,389
knowledge and finally there's there's a

792
00:31:52,470 --> 00:31:50,740
couple of things I want to say that I'm

793
00:31:53,730 --> 00:31:52,480
not directly related but first of all

794
00:31:56,100 --> 00:31:53,740
with regards to climate change I want to

795
00:31:57,659 --> 00:31:56,110
emphasize that accepting the science

796
00:31:59,639 --> 00:31:57,669
does not mean that you also accept the

797
00:32:02,220 --> 00:31:59,649
carbon tax it's a political question

798
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:02,230
it's got nothing to do with the signs

799
00:32:06,630 --> 00:32:04,330
and all I talked about here today was to

800
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:06,640
do with evaluating evidence it has

801
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:08,290
nothing to do with a political system I

802
00:32:11,789 --> 00:32:09,610
don't believe the political system is

803
00:32:14,940 --> 00:32:11,799
subject to evidence now because it can't

804
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:14,950
be just because it isn't and finally

805
00:32:21,330 --> 00:32:18,010
remember you don't have to form an

806
00:32:22,909 --> 00:32:21,340
opinion if you don't know enough if you

807
00:32:25,919 --> 00:32:22,919
don't feel that you know enough to

808
00:32:28,409 --> 00:32:25,929
assess the evidence then the best thing

809
00:32:31,260 --> 00:32:28,419
to do is to not have an opinion say I

810
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:31,270
don't have an opinion when I am able to

811
00:32:35,250 --> 00:32:33,610
assess the evidence when I'm when I have

812
00:32:37,409 --> 00:32:35,260
assessed when I've properly assess the

813
00:32:40,350 --> 00:32:37,419
evidence then I will form an opinion

814
00:32:55,590 --> 00:32:40,360
until then I simply don't have one thank

815
00:32:57,450 --> 00:32:55,600
you very much hi this is Tim Farley you

816
00:33:00,360 --> 00:32:57,460
probably know me from what's the harm

817
00:33:03,090 --> 00:33:00,370
net a catalog of the real world harm

818
00:33:06,030 --> 00:33:03,100
caused by lack of critical thinking but

819
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:06,040
that's not my only project i present at

820
00:33:11,340 --> 00:33:09,010
skeptic events I post a daily skeptic

821
00:33:14,100 --> 00:33:11,350
history fact on Twitter and Facebook and

822
00:33:17,220 --> 00:33:14,110
I blog about using new techniques on the

823
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:17,230
internet to advance skepticism come over

824
00:33:23,850 --> 00:33:20,410
to skep tools com and check out my

825
00:33:29,170 --> 00:33:23,860
latest ideas but first enjoy the rest of

826
00:33:29,180 --> 00:33:37,330
his main art spooky action at a distance

827
00:33:42,380 --> 00:33:40,159
look we here at skeptics at the pub and

828
00:33:44,030 --> 00:33:42,390
tonight the question is um how do you

829
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:44,040
defend being a skeptic because when you

830
00:33:47,930 --> 00:33:45,690
eventually come out and tell people

831
00:33:48,919 --> 00:33:47,940
you're a skeptic after they try and

832
00:33:50,419 --> 00:33:48,929
figure out what it is they're going to

833
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:50,429
ask you what's that all about what do

834
00:33:55,970 --> 00:33:53,010
you say all my friends know already but

835
00:33:57,890 --> 00:33:55,980
basically I tell them that it's not

836
00:34:00,049 --> 00:33:57,900
necessarily denying things it's just

837
00:34:01,610 --> 00:34:00,059
requiring evidence required requiring

838
00:34:03,860 --> 00:34:01,620
evidence before you believe something

839
00:34:05,299 --> 00:34:03,870
and ever find yourself a bit of the butt

840
00:34:07,909 --> 00:34:05,309
of the joke I'll he won't believe that

841
00:34:11,149 --> 00:34:07,919
he's a skeptic that kind of stuff I'm

842
00:34:13,430 --> 00:34:11,159
not really no okay good frenzy although

843
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:13,440
I did give a Jehovah visiting Jehovah's

844
00:34:17,240 --> 00:34:15,210
Witness a good pissing last Saturday so

845
00:34:18,889 --> 00:34:17,250
no did you invite them in then had a

846
00:34:20,720 --> 00:34:18,899
debate but then I know i arguing with

847
00:34:23,330 --> 00:34:20,730
her about three-quarters of an area

848
00:34:24,830 --> 00:34:23,340
outside the front door so no and how do

849
00:34:27,649 --> 00:34:24,840
you think it went my ultimate life goal

850
00:34:29,659 --> 00:34:27,659
is to convert one well look I have heard

851
00:34:31,580 --> 00:34:29,669
of it happening and basically he

852
00:34:34,070 --> 00:34:31,590
reverted to God is magic and does can't

853
00:34:35,659 --> 00:34:34,080
the explained by science so did you beat

854
00:34:37,070 --> 00:34:35,669
them to a standstill them then they look

855
00:34:38,899 --> 00:34:37,080
at the watch and said we should be

856
00:34:41,750 --> 00:34:38,909
somewhere else pretty much you had to

857
00:34:43,310 --> 00:34:41,760
move on okay I bet you must look forward

858
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:43,320
to religious representatives coming to

859
00:34:46,849 --> 00:34:44,970
your house I quite enjoy it actually

860
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:46,859
yeah I'd like I said to my ultimate goal

861
00:34:50,810 --> 00:34:49,290
is to convert one sir well look let us

862
00:34:52,940 --> 00:34:50,820
know put that up on the website yeah

863
00:34:56,270 --> 00:34:52,950
that one mill little bit yeah we'll be

864
00:34:58,070 --> 00:34:56,280
okay thank you i'm here with steve and

865
00:34:59,840 --> 00:34:58,080
move up the wonder dog sniffing at me

866
00:35:02,390 --> 00:34:59,850
because he can smell my dad's cat on me

867
00:35:04,849 --> 00:35:02,400
or something anyway maybe I've been

868
00:35:06,859 --> 00:35:04,859
rolling in bacon again but Steve how do

869
00:35:08,630 --> 00:35:06,869
you defend being a skeptic when when you

870
00:35:10,190 --> 00:35:08,640
eventually come out or you let people

871
00:35:11,870 --> 00:35:10,200
know that you're a part of it people ask

872
00:35:13,670 --> 00:35:11,880
what's that all about and like what'd

873
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:13,680
you do that for what do you say I

874
00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:16,410
haven't had too much trouble with people

875
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:19,850
sort of getting aggressive about it but

876
00:35:24,770 --> 00:35:21,930
usually I just tell people the main

877
00:35:27,620 --> 00:35:24,780
reason I'm a skeptic is I'd like to know

878
00:35:31,020 --> 00:35:27,630
how things work and I want to have a

879
00:35:34,290 --> 00:35:31,030
correct understanding of how things work

880
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:34,300
the main criticism I've ever really had

881
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:39,930
is not so much at my skepticism but at

882
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:43,330
how I poopoo things that other people

883
00:35:48,030 --> 00:35:46,330
like I'm told should just let leave

884
00:35:50,370 --> 00:35:48,040
people alone let them think what they

885
00:35:53,660 --> 00:35:50,380
want and that's about being accused of

886
00:35:56,100 --> 00:35:53,670
harshing people's mellow every yes and

887
00:35:58,650 --> 00:35:56,110
that that's probably the only thing I've

888
00:36:02,940 --> 00:35:58,660
really been put on the spot to try and

889
00:36:05,310 --> 00:36:02,950
defend and my defense of that is those

890
00:36:07,980 --> 00:36:05,320
people are allowed to vote so I care

891
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:07,990
what they believe in I want if people

892
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:12,330
are going to be able to influence the

893
00:36:19,170 --> 00:36:15,970
government the world around me that I I

894
00:36:22,730 --> 00:36:19,180
want them to be thinking rationally I

895
00:36:26,900 --> 00:36:22,740
don't want to be living in a world where

896
00:36:29,130 --> 00:36:26,910
I'm oppressed because of silly beliefs

897
00:36:31,650 --> 00:36:29,140
that's a tough call I mean for goodness

898
00:36:34,020 --> 00:36:31,660
sake lara bingle has a TV show I mean

899
00:36:36,210 --> 00:36:34,030
really I mean it's an ugly world that

900
00:36:39,090 --> 00:36:36,220
evidence is not often given the way it

901
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:39,100
should have no it isn't that that's just

902
00:36:45,210 --> 00:36:42,850
how it goes and I'm certainly not in the

903
00:36:47,190 --> 00:36:45,220
camp of saying these people should have

904
00:36:50,340 --> 00:36:47,200
to take an IQ test before they can vote

905
00:36:53,940 --> 00:36:50,350
I think everyone needs to be able to

906
00:36:56,070 --> 00:36:53,950
vote and have their voices heard that I

907
00:36:58,470 --> 00:36:56,080
think it's important to make sure that

908
00:37:03,000 --> 00:36:58,480
those voices speaking the truth is often

909
00:37:04,710 --> 00:37:03,010
as possible how do you defend being a

910
00:37:07,020 --> 00:37:04,720
skeptic when you came out as a skeptic

911
00:37:09,720 --> 00:37:07,030
and it went off what what did you say

912
00:37:11,220 --> 00:37:09,730
when I came out oh my god look she's

913
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:11,230
she's causing enough trouble as it is

914
00:37:15,370 --> 00:37:14,410
now she's a skeptic well actually it's

915
00:37:18,490 --> 00:37:15,380
really in

916
00:37:20,950 --> 00:37:18,500
because when i discovered skepticism it

917
00:37:23,529 --> 00:37:20,960
was a real revelation to me and i took

918
00:37:27,370 --> 00:37:23,539
to it like a religion and i was very

919
00:37:29,950 --> 00:37:27,380
evangelical and it really didn't go down

920
00:37:31,660 --> 00:37:29,960
well so you know just looking at

921
00:37:34,930 --> 00:37:31,670
people's reactions so that people call

922
00:37:36,609 --> 00:37:34,940
you a dawkins botherer today no no not

923
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:36,619
at all it was just you could see the

924
00:37:41,259 --> 00:37:38,690
eyes you know drifting away you can see

925
00:37:44,380 --> 00:37:41,269
them disconnecting you can see that that

926
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:44,390
they were really engaged in the way I

927
00:37:49,660 --> 00:37:47,930
was and you know we're always talking in

928
00:37:51,759 --> 00:37:49,670
the skeptical community how the win

929
00:37:54,460 --> 00:37:51,769
hearts and minds so it was actually a

930
00:37:57,640 --> 00:37:54,470
really good on the front line example of

931
00:38:00,759 --> 00:37:57,650
how not to do it yo homie evangelical so

932
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:00,769
I think when people ask me about being a

933
00:38:05,289 --> 00:38:03,410
skeptic I just give them a very straight

934
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:05,299
explanation of what we do what the

935
00:38:14,410 --> 00:38:09,170
Australian skeptics do I give

936
00:38:17,500 --> 00:38:14,420
a very calm and measured explanation and

937
00:38:20,470 --> 00:38:17,510
I explained also what fun it is and how

938
00:38:22,240 --> 00:38:20,480
interesting it is and you know how we

939
00:38:27,940 --> 00:38:22,250
have a ball and have a really good time

940
00:38:29,500 --> 00:38:27,950
and how we try and do good and in the

941
00:38:32,380 --> 00:38:29,510
health sphere and consumer protection

942
00:38:34,299 --> 00:38:32,390
and what have you and people people are

943
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:34,309
much more receptive to that I find at

944
00:38:39,069 --> 00:38:36,530
least they listen they take it on board

945
00:38:41,170 --> 00:38:39,079
and I think they're more likely to go

946
00:38:42,940 --> 00:38:41,180
away and look into it do you think maybe

947
00:38:44,770 --> 00:38:42,950
the skeptics need a mascot I mean most

948
00:38:46,359 --> 00:38:44,780
football teams have a mascot I'm not

949
00:38:48,849 --> 00:38:46,369
talking about a cheerleader some sort of

950
00:38:50,770 --> 00:38:48,859
like a big hypodermic or something I

951
00:38:53,049 --> 00:38:50,780
don't know oh I think that would be too

952
00:38:55,329 --> 00:38:53,059
scary I would scare the children even

953
00:38:57,130 --> 00:38:55,339
more yeah I don't know yet look I think

954
00:38:59,589 --> 00:38:57,140
all will work on the issue of a mascot

955
00:39:04,150 --> 00:38:59,599
at a later date yeah good idea it's a

956
00:39:06,370 --> 00:39:04,160
deal well I became a skeptic by wanting

957
00:39:08,890 --> 00:39:06,380
to learn debating techniques and I

958
00:39:11,859 --> 00:39:08,900
googled how to argue and I found the

959
00:39:13,900 --> 00:39:11,869
article written by steven available from

960
00:39:15,910 --> 00:39:13,910
the skeptics guide and it's the articles

961
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:15,920
been up there for a long time and it's

962
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:18,410
titled how to argue and that's where I

963
00:39:23,829 --> 00:39:21,290
discovered logical fallacies and that

964
00:39:28,720 --> 00:39:23,839
led me on to reading more and more about

965
00:39:30,730 --> 00:39:28,730
skepticism so to defend the reason i

966
00:39:33,010 --> 00:39:30,740
would say i'm a skip why I'm a skeptic

967
00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:33,020
now is simply I just want to know what's

968
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:36,650
going on okay my first year at

969
00:39:41,560 --> 00:39:39,410
university i got i went to the

970
00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:41,570
university of new england and

971
00:39:49,420 --> 00:39:45,970
at the age of 16 and the the University

972
00:39:53,290 --> 00:39:49,430
newspaper newspaper that's either a

973
00:39:55,180 --> 00:39:53,300
welcome from the chaplain in which he

974
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:55,190
said all the usual sort of chaplain

975
00:40:02,080 --> 00:39:57,410
evenings and I instantly wrote in

976
00:40:04,180 --> 00:40:02,090
response okay saying I can't remember

977
00:40:06,030 --> 00:40:04,190
what I said I've let it again decently

978
00:40:08,380 --> 00:40:06,040
and it was quite intelligent our

979
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:08,390
questioning queering the whole religious

980
00:40:15,940 --> 00:40:10,610
thing this in the University of England

981
00:40:18,310 --> 00:40:15,950
in 1959 was quite startling actually I

982
00:40:20,860 --> 00:40:18,320
think so yeah did I came out quite early

983
00:40:22,060 --> 00:40:20,870
and how did you explain your position to

984
00:40:23,530 --> 00:40:22,070
people then where they're going I'll

985
00:40:25,750 --> 00:40:23,540
look do you have to make so much trouble

986
00:40:28,780 --> 00:40:25,760
was probably something you've got no

987
00:40:31,270 --> 00:40:28,790
actually people don't in Australian

988
00:40:35,110 --> 00:40:31,280
would like to challenge questions and

989
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:35,120
topics are certainly not there I did

990
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:37,610
start a nationalist society with the

991
00:40:41,860 --> 00:40:39,530
benefit of it we didn't get very far

992
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:41,870
with it but I must say the castle ward

993
00:40:47,380 --> 00:40:44,690
who was professor of history noted us

994
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:47,390
alien historian I'm stopped in the code

995
00:40:50,950 --> 00:40:49,490
in the going down the aisle in the

996
00:40:52,720 --> 00:40:50,960
history lecture and said were you the

997
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:52,730
one who got that and I said yes he said

998
00:40:56,890 --> 00:40:54,890
good on you and you can do history

999
00:40:58,900 --> 00:40:56,900
honors even though I failed I should've

1000
00:41:01,090 --> 00:40:58,910
tailed test you seek approval from

1001
00:41:03,069 --> 00:41:01,100
authority it was day two people because

1002
00:41:04,779 --> 00:41:03,079
they view people there

1003
00:41:06,579 --> 00:41:04,789
we're able to say that sort of thing I

1004
00:41:08,559 --> 00:41:06,589
think and what is the best way to sum up

1005
00:41:14,499 --> 00:41:08,569
things skeptic when people do ask you in

1006
00:41:16,690 --> 00:41:14,509
one sentence is there one just using

1007
00:41:19,900 --> 00:41:16,700
your intelligence to question the sort

1008
00:41:24,370 --> 00:41:19,910
of things that other people are very

1009
00:41:26,349 --> 00:41:24,380
definite about given the in the case of

1010
00:41:29,620 --> 00:41:26,359
religion for example given the fact that

1011
00:41:32,140 --> 00:41:29,630
I think God has got a real problem with

1012
00:41:33,489 --> 00:41:32,150
PR with public relations because he

1013
00:41:36,519 --> 00:41:33,499
hasn't actually made it quite clear

1014
00:41:39,099 --> 00:41:36,529
which version of God that every so many

1015
00:41:41,620 --> 00:41:39,109
people are so fundamentally sure about

1016
00:41:43,599 --> 00:41:41,630
is actually the accurate one so i think

1017
00:41:47,319 --> 00:41:43,609
an Almighty God who can't actually get

1018
00:41:51,579 --> 00:41:47,329
his message out there clearly isn't what

1019
00:41:52,989 --> 00:41:51,589
we were very convincing yet yes well as

1020
00:41:55,839 --> 00:41:52,999
considerable difference between the

1021
00:41:59,079 --> 00:41:55,849
Lutheran Church and Islam for example

1022
00:42:00,459 --> 00:41:59,089
precisely that and so you know I mean an

1023
00:42:02,259 --> 00:42:00,469
Almighty God ought to be able to at

1024
00:42:04,870 --> 00:42:02,269
least be fairly clear about what his

1025
00:42:07,089 --> 00:42:04,880
messages and he's not so that's in the

1026
00:42:11,620 --> 00:42:07,099
terms of religion but father subjects to

1027
00:42:13,599 --> 00:42:11,630
I think you know there's just and I

1028
00:42:16,599 --> 00:42:13,609
understand that people want to hang on

1029
00:42:19,509 --> 00:42:16,609
opinions out of that feelings out of

1030
00:42:21,789 --> 00:42:19,519
emotions and some but when there's so

1031
00:42:23,979 --> 00:42:21,799
many contradictions going I've got a

1032
00:42:27,309 --> 00:42:23,989
brain I want to use it and I want to be

1033
00:42:28,390 --> 00:42:27,319
able to work it out for myself look

1034
00:42:30,130 --> 00:42:28,400
we've got a visitor from Melbourne here

1035
00:42:31,299 --> 00:42:30,140
who's enjoying our skeptics in the pub

1036
00:42:33,789 --> 00:42:31,309
it's all happening at the coronation

1037
00:42:34,900 --> 00:42:33,799
hotel here right now we've got little

1038
00:42:37,089 --> 00:42:34,910
sorts of things happening that I can't

1039
00:42:39,130 --> 00:42:37,099
describe jus cuz radio best you imagine

1040
00:42:41,319 --> 00:42:39,140
it with the theater of your mind John

1041
00:42:42,910 --> 00:42:41,329
how do you defend being a skeptic when

1042
00:42:47,700 --> 00:42:42,920
people when you come out to people about

1043
00:42:51,089 --> 00:42:47,710
being one I don't know that actually

1044
00:42:53,460 --> 00:42:51,099
I've never really get challenged by it I

1045
00:42:57,810 --> 00:42:53,470
think largely most of the people i

1046
00:42:59,490 --> 00:42:57,820
associated with of a similar bent I'm a

1047
00:43:01,890 --> 00:42:59,500
geek so I hang out with other geeks and

1048
00:43:03,710 --> 00:43:01,900
most geeks are while they're highly

1049
00:43:06,329 --> 00:43:03,720
opinionated they generally respect

1050
00:43:08,370 --> 00:43:06,339
critical thinking they might not have

1051
00:43:10,109 --> 00:43:08,380
put all the time I don't know it all the

1052
00:43:13,050 --> 00:43:10,119
time but when they see it in action

1053
00:43:14,609 --> 00:43:13,060
though generally appreciate it okay is

1054
00:43:15,870 --> 00:43:14,619
there a simple way you could sum it up

1055
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:15,880
when people ask you what it's all about

1056
00:43:27,300 --> 00:43:22,810
I usually avoid the question like I'm

1057
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:27,310
doing right now but you get quite and

1058
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:29,290
it's understandable it can just link it

1059
00:43:36,630 --> 00:43:32,530
can lead to like awkward silences or you

1060
00:43:41,339 --> 00:43:36,640
know value judgments hmm yes I do that a

1061
00:43:42,870 --> 00:43:41,349
lot mmm yes right now now when when you

1062
00:43:45,510 --> 00:43:42,880
tell people are skeptical you come out

1063
00:43:47,250 --> 00:43:45,520
as a skeptic and people go what's that

1064
00:43:49,950 --> 00:43:47,260
it's been strange and he defended oh and

1065
00:43:51,900 --> 00:43:49,960
your drinks behind you by the way our

1066
00:43:55,770 --> 00:43:51,910
interviewee is now getting in a glass of

1067
00:43:57,720 --> 00:43:55,780
red wine yes I don't actually really

1068
00:44:01,160 --> 00:43:57,730
have to defend it very much I mean I'm

1069
00:44:04,950 --> 00:44:01,170
very obviously a skeptic all the time so

1070
00:44:07,790 --> 00:44:04,960
I've really become a lot more aggressive

1071
00:44:10,650 --> 00:44:07,800
about not putting up with any [\h__\h]

1072
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:10,660
and what is the common bullcrap that you

1073
00:44:15,300 --> 00:44:13,210
are confronted with on a regular basis

1074
00:44:17,550 --> 00:44:15,310
mainly religious crap but that you know

1075
00:44:19,620 --> 00:44:17,560
you do get the climate science crap and

1076
00:44:23,339 --> 00:44:19,630
then you know a bit of the vaccination

1077
00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:23,349
breck quite a lot of arm acupuncture

1078
00:44:27,450 --> 00:44:25,930
crap now is lot of us in the workplace

1079
00:44:31,890 --> 00:44:27,460
at all I even a workplace where this

1080
00:44:33,810 --> 00:44:31,900
happen no I go to uni and so you would

1081
00:44:35,670 --> 00:44:33,820
be surprised how many people leave their

1082
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:35,680
brains at the gauge of the universe

1083
00:44:39,059 --> 00:44:37,210
but it's how you normally get a high

1084
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:39,069
distinction in an essay isn't it i know

1085
00:44:46,980 --> 00:44:42,210
i know i'm finding quite quite difficult

1086
00:44:49,950 --> 00:44:46,990
rationalizing there being in university

1087
00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:49,960
in training and and all this extra

1088
00:44:52,799 --> 00:44:51,130
knowledge that they should be gaining

1089
00:44:55,380 --> 00:44:52,809
and then they still believe all this

1090
00:44:56,880 --> 00:44:55,390
stupid stuff you think it's because this

1091
00:44:58,589 --> 00:44:56,890
knowledge is being sort of enforced upon

1092
00:45:00,270 --> 00:44:58,599
them and they're thinking that there's

1093
00:45:03,260 --> 00:45:00,280
some alternative that isn't as

1094
00:45:05,940 --> 00:45:03,270
regimented that they've seek yeah not

1095
00:45:07,980 --> 00:45:05,950
boy have to be used to think of that

1096
00:45:10,470 --> 00:45:07,990
sentence okay it was beautiful sentence

1097
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:10,480
too but no no I think what happens

1098
00:45:16,770 --> 00:45:13,930
especially in the gain of religion is in

1099
00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:16,780
particular is the training sort of seats

1100
00:45:22,049 --> 00:45:19,690
engine and so young that they just can't

1101
00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:22,059
think of any think in any other manner

1102
00:45:26,309 --> 00:45:23,890
and they really they really have a hard

1103
00:45:27,569 --> 00:45:26,319
time sort of thinking rationally about

1104
00:45:30,270 --> 00:45:27,579
it they can think rationally about

1105
00:45:32,130 --> 00:45:30,280
everything else in life but that is a

1106
00:45:33,450 --> 00:45:32,140
one-sentence it explained skepticism

1107
00:45:42,260 --> 00:45:33,460
when you've got to explain to people

1108
00:45:46,349 --> 00:45:42,270
quickly um it oh let me think using

1109
00:45:48,720 --> 00:45:46,359
science and rationality to figure out

1110
00:45:49,990 --> 00:45:48,730
the world place but it's would be one

1111
00:45:53,230 --> 00:45:50,000
way

1112
00:45:55,180 --> 00:45:53,240
okay look things are having this

1113
00:45:56,530 --> 00:45:55,190
controversial action at the bar some

1114
00:45:58,240 --> 00:45:56,540
people are having vodka Norns other

1115
00:45:59,860 --> 00:45:58,250
having vodka and cranberry in fact

1116
00:46:02,200 --> 00:45:59,870
there's a vodka schism going on at the

1117
00:46:03,820 --> 00:46:02,210
bar as we talk but look how you do not

1118
00:46:05,650 --> 00:46:03,830
you enjoying skeptic to the pub very

1119
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:05,660
much say yes now when people come up to

1120
00:46:10,540 --> 00:46:09,290
you and you come out as a skeptic what

1121
00:46:12,790 --> 00:46:10,550
know how do you explain it when you had

1122
00:46:13,780 --> 00:46:12,800
to defend it the biggest challenge is

1123
00:46:15,820 --> 00:46:13,790
actually saying that it's not about

1124
00:46:17,740 --> 00:46:15,830
denying everything not about doubting

1125
00:46:19,060 --> 00:46:17,750
everything it's actually about looking

1126
00:46:20,170 --> 00:46:19,070
for the things that might be true and

1127
00:46:21,610 --> 00:46:20,180
that's the thing it really interested me

1128
00:46:25,030 --> 00:46:21,620
I enjoyed science fiction if they think

1129
00:46:27,610 --> 00:46:25,040
what could be true and one thing to look

1130
00:46:29,290 --> 00:46:27,620
at could be true but isn't it amazing to

1131
00:46:31,390 --> 00:46:29,300
think about what actually is true and

1132
00:46:34,420 --> 00:46:31,400
what the end of the day you can have

1133
00:46:37,300 --> 00:46:34,430
things that are potentials and you could

1134
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:37,310
back up a tree and deal yeah happy with

1135
00:46:40,240 --> 00:46:38,930
that or you can actually find something

1136
00:46:42,010 --> 00:46:40,250
it is true and it's just so much more

1137
00:46:43,780 --> 00:46:42,020
fascinating because often the things

1138
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:43,790
that go into making that up is so much

1139
00:46:47,500 --> 00:46:45,890
more intricate and the details are just

1140
00:46:48,970 --> 00:46:47,510
where your mind away well what's an

1141
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:48,980
example you give people go on for

1142
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:52,010
example this and they'll go home I had

1143
00:46:56,410 --> 00:46:54,530
an argument the other day about the

1144
00:46:59,650 --> 00:46:56,420
effect the moon can have on people and

1145
00:47:00,970 --> 00:46:59,660
it was a big moon in the left of work

1146
00:47:03,340 --> 00:47:00,980
and I said I had a headache and someone

1147
00:47:04,540 --> 00:47:03,350
said I it's that damn moon and I will

1148
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:04,550
show you in a lift you when I got about

1149
00:47:08,470 --> 00:47:06,170
a minute at the most if second elevator

1150
00:47:12,250 --> 00:47:08,480
talk about to say it's interesting by

1151
00:47:13,810 --> 00:47:12,260
what mechanism and I set up yeah gravity

1152
00:47:16,810 --> 00:47:13,820
and tides and all that was like yeah

1153
00:47:19,630 --> 00:47:16,820
well don't you think it would be a bit

1154
00:47:21,850 --> 00:47:19,640
of trouble considering the volume of the

1155
00:47:24,730 --> 00:47:21,860
earth the fact that moves about and meet

1156
00:47:26,650 --> 00:47:24,740
us at tide times whatever that would

1157
00:47:28,780 --> 00:47:26,660
have on your cellular level of your body

1158
00:47:31,030 --> 00:47:28,790
I think it's much more likely that I've

1159
00:47:33,130 --> 00:47:31,040
got no light in my office the fact that

1160
00:47:34,780 --> 00:47:33,140
I had a very poor night's sleep and that

1161
00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:34,790
I actually was sick three days ago that

1162
00:47:37,780 --> 00:47:36,770
I've got a headache and you're out too

1163
00:47:40,570 --> 00:47:37,790
late in the morning and you came

1164
00:47:42,070 --> 00:47:40,580
straight from the bar exactly those are

1165
00:47:43,570 --> 00:47:42,080
things that you've got to factor into

1166
00:47:45,550 --> 00:47:43,580
this and then how do you describe

1167
00:47:47,110 --> 00:47:45,560
skepticism in one sentence when people

1168
00:47:50,500 --> 00:47:47,120
ask you what's it all about and you've

1169
00:47:52,530 --> 00:47:50,510
got a one cent oh that's a toughy a lot

1170
00:47:55,270 --> 00:47:52,540
of people use the word evidence comes up

1171
00:47:56,980 --> 00:47:55,280
rationality science all those words come

1172
00:47:59,830 --> 00:47:56,990
up but what's the one you use

1173
00:48:03,609 --> 00:47:59,840
trying to figure out what's the right

1174
00:48:07,720 --> 00:48:03,619
thing to believe and when to stop

1175
00:48:09,609 --> 00:48:07,730
believing that's good god I'm just here

1176
00:48:11,380 --> 00:48:09,619
with dr. hu in a quieter area of the pub

1177
00:48:12,640 --> 00:48:11,390
how are you I'm good may not how are you

1178
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:12,650
how do you find look a lot of people ask

1179
00:48:16,930 --> 00:48:15,170
me that Maynard what is what's going on

1180
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:16,940
inside your head ok here this is this is

1181
00:48:20,710 --> 00:48:18,890
most people most people's most people's

1182
00:48:26,190 --> 00:48:20,720
head it's kind of like this my head's

1183
00:48:30,490 --> 00:48:28,450
that was like a journey into my mind for

1184
00:48:32,290 --> 00:48:30,500
a moment so that was like um when a

1185
00:48:34,330 --> 00:48:32,300
pinball machine has one pinball that's

1186
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:34,340
going bing-bong bing-bong bing-bong yeah

1187
00:48:38,170 --> 00:48:36,890
or in the Simpsons when the monkey just

1188
00:48:40,210 --> 00:48:38,180
banging the cymbals together in their

1189
00:48:42,490 --> 00:48:40,220
spanks Spanish fleas playing it on his

1190
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:42,500
head that's what's going on here dr.

1191
00:48:46,030 --> 00:48:44,450
Reggie when people when you come out as

1192
00:48:47,350 --> 00:48:46,040
a skeptic when you originally did when

1193
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:47,360
you mention you're a skeptic and people

1194
00:48:49,900 --> 00:48:48,530
get on one side about what are you dare

1195
00:48:51,990 --> 00:48:49,910
for it what do you know how to use only

1196
00:48:54,310 --> 00:48:52,000
defend or mention explain it to people

1197
00:48:56,470 --> 00:48:54,320
well I don't know I guess I mean I'm a

1198
00:48:58,150 --> 00:48:56,480
scientist as well so actually I'm

1199
00:49:00,160 --> 00:48:58,160
professionally a skeptic if you like

1200
00:49:01,750 --> 00:49:00,170
because what I'm trained to do and what

1201
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:01,760
I do every day is analyze information

1202
00:49:07,780 --> 00:49:05,090
and look for the evidence and that's the

1203
00:49:09,280 --> 00:49:07,790
same as what I do as a skeptic so I

1204
00:49:11,910 --> 00:49:09,290
don't really have to defend it because

1205
00:49:15,400 --> 00:49:11,920
that's what I rely on for my profession

1206
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:15,410
and in terms of I guess with respect to

1207
00:49:19,750 --> 00:49:17,330
doing it in my spare time it's more

1208
00:49:22,900 --> 00:49:19,760
about consumer protection and just being

1209
00:49:25,330 --> 00:49:22,910
aware of scams and people getting ripped

1210
00:49:27,460 --> 00:49:25,340
off and that sort of thing so being able

1211
00:49:30,730 --> 00:49:27,470
to differentiate between what is maybe a

1212
00:49:33,070 --> 00:49:30,740
scam and what is true and just to avoid

1213
00:49:34,750 --> 00:49:33,080
getting ripped off basically and where

1214
00:49:36,220 --> 00:49:34,760
does it happen with when you get the

1215
00:49:37,780 --> 00:49:36,230
politics around into it because I ramas

1216
00:49:39,700 --> 00:49:37,790
talking today about you know evidence

1217
00:49:41,859 --> 00:49:39,710
and he mentioned that politics is not

1218
00:49:43,540 --> 00:49:41,869
evidence-based and their outcomes are

1219
00:49:46,180 --> 00:49:43,550
certainly not based on what is right or

1220
00:49:48,010 --> 00:49:46,190
scientifically proven that's where you

1221
00:49:49,540 --> 00:49:48,020
know I'm various it about conspiracies

1222
00:49:53,590 --> 00:49:49,550
and things like that because they are

1223
00:49:56,200 --> 00:49:53,600
generated from non-scientific thinking

1224
00:49:57,430 --> 00:49:56,210
mmm because species are so much fun you

1225
00:49:59,079 --> 00:49:57,440
know I think that's that's the

1226
00:50:02,259 --> 00:49:59,089
difference because

1227
00:50:04,539 --> 00:50:02,269
I mean it's so I think it's just a human

1228
00:50:07,390 --> 00:50:04,549
trait it's a human frailty thing to love

1229
00:50:08,680 --> 00:50:07,400
conspiracies until of gossip and to love

1230
00:50:10,269 --> 00:50:08,690
the idea that there's something weird

1231
00:50:11,829 --> 00:50:10,279
going on and I you know even though I am

1232
00:50:13,779 --> 00:50:11,839
a scientist a skeptic it doesn't mean

1233
00:50:15,969 --> 00:50:13,789
I'm completely immune to that stuff I

1234
00:50:18,910 --> 00:50:15,979
love that stuff to you know I mean I I

1235
00:50:20,229 --> 00:50:18,920
watched the the lunar the partial lunar

1236
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:20,239
eclipse the other night and I thought it

1237
00:50:22,959 --> 00:50:21,650
was cool and maybe there's aliens up

1238
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:22,969
there and they probably aren't but you

1239
00:50:26,799 --> 00:50:25,130
know be nice if there were and look I

1240
00:50:28,479 --> 00:50:26,809
like that spaceship that's as big as a

1241
00:50:31,150 --> 00:50:28,489
planet that keeps popping around the Sun

1242
00:50:32,259 --> 00:50:31,160
that NASA refuses to admits there do you

1243
00:50:34,959 --> 00:50:32,269
mean the one that went around the Sun

1244
00:50:37,029 --> 00:50:34,969
just yesterday may not be that one look

1245
00:50:38,859 --> 00:50:37,039
no nothing to do with banana Rama's

1246
00:50:41,469 --> 00:50:38,869
anniversary of Venus that's right

1247
00:50:44,469 --> 00:50:41,479
because because it's 30 years since

1248
00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:44,479
Bananarama formed and produced their

1249
00:50:48,390 --> 00:50:46,729
first beautiful album deep-sea skiving

1250
00:50:51,339 --> 00:50:48,400
which I have a vinyl copy of at home

1251
00:50:53,559 --> 00:50:51,349
Venus went past the Sun wasn't that

1252
00:50:54,969 --> 00:50:53,569
convenient and how lovely of Venus to do

1253
00:50:56,289 --> 00:50:54,979
that for us although that's not my

1254
00:50:57,609 --> 00:50:56,299
favorite song that I want you back is

1255
00:51:02,170 --> 00:50:57,619
actually my favorite song from but I

1256
00:51:04,089 --> 00:51:02,180
want you back to have to do back top

1257
00:51:05,769 --> 00:51:04,099
it's been it's better than anything that

1258
00:51:08,289 --> 00:51:05,779
buddy Howard Jones did and I know you

1259
00:51:10,539 --> 00:51:08,299
many gnarly look this is where we we

1260
00:51:12,940 --> 00:51:10,549
have to part ways baby kids city and

1261
00:51:15,489 --> 00:51:12,950
there's no way we can we can prove by

1262
00:51:16,809 --> 00:51:15,499
using evidence-based science that no

1263
00:51:18,430 --> 00:51:16,819
banana Rama is actually better than

1264
00:51:20,079 --> 00:51:18,440
Howard Jones we can't do that no there's

1265
00:51:22,539 --> 00:51:20,089
no way except I could say you're wrong

1266
00:51:24,160 --> 00:51:22,549
unequivocally there we go okay and for

1267
00:51:25,839 --> 00:51:24,170
people to ask you in one sentence what

1268
00:51:27,160 --> 00:51:25,849
skepticism about and why you're part of

1269
00:51:28,959 --> 00:51:27,170
it what do you tell people dr. Wright

1270
00:51:31,509 --> 00:51:28,969
use it to give them a big glass of shut

1271
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:31,519
up juice to give them shut up juice no I

1272
00:51:34,509 --> 00:51:32,930
don't want them to have shot juice I

1273
00:51:38,229 --> 00:51:34,519
want them to know it's about looking at

1274
00:51:41,079 --> 00:51:38,239
ghosties and aliens and big cats that

1275
00:51:43,660 --> 00:51:41,089
walk around the hunter and haunted

1276
00:51:45,940 --> 00:51:43,670
houses and stuff that's really fantastic

1277
00:51:47,769 --> 00:51:45,950
and fascinating and working out how it

1278
00:51:51,309 --> 00:51:47,779
actually works it's about how things

1279
00:51:53,739 --> 00:51:51,319
work which is cool and fun and I got

1280
00:51:55,950 --> 00:51:53,749
sent a paw print from Cessnock I've just

1281
00:51:58,209 --> 00:51:55,960
been examining that today may not and I

1282
00:52:00,819 --> 00:51:58,219
passed some comment on that looks like

1283
00:52:02,410 --> 00:52:00,829
it may be a canine print well I don't

1284
00:52:04,029 --> 00:52:02,420
know if you saw the thread but there was

1285
00:52:05,380 --> 00:52:04,039
a few people discussing that because

1286
00:52:07,839 --> 00:52:05,390
Richard forwarded it to the committee

1287
00:52:09,279 --> 00:52:07,849
and it was amazing how people analyze

1288
00:52:10,840 --> 00:52:09,289
that there was someone from the

1289
00:52:12,250 --> 00:52:10,850
Australian Museum you had a look at

1290
00:52:17,170 --> 00:52:12,260
and said well it's not a cat because

1291
00:52:18,790 --> 00:52:17,180
cats can I eccentric their claws that's

1292
00:52:21,220 --> 00:52:18,800
the way the clear the claw was extended

1293
00:52:22,870 --> 00:52:21,230
the claw is extended and cats don't run

1294
00:52:27,220 --> 00:52:22,880
like that the only thing that can't

1295
00:52:28,750 --> 00:52:27,230
retract Klaus is is it a Jaguar or well

1296
00:52:30,400 --> 00:52:28,760
it's going to be on the website next

1297
00:52:31,930 --> 00:52:30,410
week but where is that photo at the

1298
00:52:34,090 --> 00:52:31,940
moment with the skipper well it's it's

1299
00:52:36,250 --> 00:52:34,100
on flickr I just we just looked at on

1300
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:36,260
flickr don't you look when you win when

1301
00:52:38,770 --> 00:52:37,610
we release this to the public even

1302
00:52:40,120 --> 00:52:38,780
though the guy himself doesn't think

1303
00:52:42,490 --> 00:52:40,130
it's a big caddy they get some sort of

1304
00:52:43,660 --> 00:52:42,500
been told know anything's to be dog well

1305
00:52:45,130 --> 00:52:43,670
I thought it was fun I mean it was

1306
00:52:47,470 --> 00:52:45,140
really fascinating but the thing is it

1307
00:52:49,990 --> 00:52:47,480
was a paw print in the sand in isolation

1308
00:52:51,790 --> 00:52:50,000
so it's really difficult to know i mean

1309
00:52:53,650 --> 00:52:51,800
if there was a cat you would expect to

1310
00:52:55,180 --> 00:52:53,660
see like a big cat you spent to see a

1311
00:52:57,850 --> 00:52:55,190
few of them so you can see what it was

1312
00:53:00,700 --> 00:52:57,860
moving maybe some poo would be nice

1313
00:53:02,050 --> 00:53:00,710
maybe a dead carcass because apparently

1314
00:53:04,390 --> 00:53:02,060
these reports have been circulating for

1315
00:53:05,440 --> 00:53:04,400
more than 20 years now so if that's true

1316
00:53:07,540 --> 00:53:05,450
there must be a breeding population

1317
00:53:09,700 --> 00:53:07,550
somewhere main are so where's the dead

1318
00:53:11,620 --> 00:53:09,710
[\h__\h] cats and of course at this state I

1319
00:53:14,410 --> 00:53:11,630
must mention that I was handing out like

1320
00:53:16,510 --> 00:53:14,420
crazy a DVD i made it skeptic camp which

1321
00:53:18,040 --> 00:53:16,520
featured a scottish science program for

1322
00:53:20,230 --> 00:53:18,050
children called Nina and the neurons

1323
00:53:22,030 --> 00:53:20,240
which did have a lot of poo in it and

1324
00:53:23,590 --> 00:53:22,040
just got the Scottish accent because it

1325
00:53:25,720 --> 00:53:23,600
was a lot of all about the digestion

1326
00:53:29,710 --> 00:53:25,730
system and they demonstrated fiber by

1327
00:53:31,330 --> 00:53:29,720
trying to go down a ski ramp with a

1328
00:53:33,310 --> 00:53:31,340
rubber mat and it didn't go and they put

1329
00:53:34,720 --> 00:53:33,320
one with a fibrous mat and they are slid

1330
00:53:36,730 --> 00:53:34,730
down there and that's how they explain

1331
00:53:38,230 --> 00:53:36,740
it and hook ship you she said it was

1332
00:53:39,520 --> 00:53:38,240
Scottish action so if you watched it yet

1333
00:53:41,170 --> 00:53:39,530
because that's science education you

1334
00:53:43,060 --> 00:53:41,180
know I haven't I haven't seen as I've

1335
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:43,070
told people I reckon dr. Rach you could

1336
00:53:46,270 --> 00:53:45,050
host need it in the neurons you got to

1337
00:53:48,610 --> 00:53:46,280
put your head into pigtails and away you

1338
00:53:50,890 --> 00:53:48,620
go I haven't watched it yet but perhaps

1339
00:53:52,480 --> 00:53:50,900
I can over this weekend which is going

1340
00:53:54,430 --> 00:53:52,490
to be the Queen's birthday weekend I'll

1341
00:53:56,200 --> 00:53:54,440
have some time Maynard look I'm going to

1342
00:53:58,230 --> 00:53:56,210
watch a drag show just to celebrate it

1343
00:54:00,220 --> 00:53:58,240
look thank for your time dr. Reggie and

1344
00:54:01,810 --> 00:54:00,230
the question I have been asking people

1345
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:01,820
here tonight is how do you defend you

1346
00:54:05,050 --> 00:54:03,290
feel yourself as a skeptic when you

1347
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:05,060
mention you're a skeptic and you come

1348
00:54:08,950 --> 00:54:07,610
out as a skeptic until you are then how

1349
00:54:11,230 --> 00:54:08,960
do you normally I'm being the president

1350
00:54:14,500 --> 00:54:11,240
this is going to come up fairly often it

1351
00:54:16,030 --> 00:54:14,510
comes up very often yes I must admit and

1352
00:54:17,830 --> 00:54:16,040
don't feel a need to defend myself

1353
00:54:21,460 --> 00:54:17,840
people ask questions people are usually

1354
00:54:23,830 --> 00:54:21,470
very respectful they ask questions they

1355
00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:23,840
might you know sneak a

1356
00:54:30,190 --> 00:54:27,410
bit of a you know smile or something you

1357
00:54:31,510 --> 00:54:30,200
know they okay then what do you think

1358
00:54:33,640 --> 00:54:31,520
about homeopathy or what do you think

1359
00:54:34,990 --> 00:54:33,650
about the moon landing and the way they

1360
00:54:36,910 --> 00:54:35,000
say that does that does that mean

1361
00:54:38,440 --> 00:54:36,920
they're thinking he's a troublemaker oh

1362
00:54:39,970 --> 00:54:38,450
they definitely think I'm a troublemaker

1363
00:54:42,820 --> 00:54:39,980
and they'd be absolutely right about

1364
00:54:44,920 --> 00:54:42,830
that of course but I don't generally

1365
00:54:47,860 --> 00:54:44,930
feel I need to defend myself people are

1366
00:54:50,980 --> 00:54:47,870
more often curious about what it means

1367
00:54:53,500 --> 00:54:50,990
and what I'm the most the question I get

1368
00:54:55,690 --> 00:54:53,510
most is what are you skeptical about and

1369
00:54:57,820 --> 00:54:55,700
I really have to explain that I'm not

1370
00:54:59,950 --> 00:54:57,830
skeptical about anything that it's a

1371
00:55:02,080 --> 00:54:59,960
more matter of approach about seeking

1372
00:55:04,990 --> 00:55:02,090
the evidence and about making decisions

1373
00:55:06,160 --> 00:55:05,000
based based on that evidence and also

1374
00:55:09,070 --> 00:55:06,170
not forming an opinion without

1375
00:55:11,740 --> 00:55:09,080
sufficient evidence so I don't feel very

1376
00:55:14,170 --> 00:55:11,750
often that i'm attacked except when we

1377
00:55:16,150 --> 00:55:14,180
actually speak to water or what i would

1378
00:55:17,050 --> 00:55:16,160
call our cultural adversaries things

1379
00:55:20,950 --> 00:55:17,060
like you know people like the

1380
00:55:22,870 --> 00:55:20,960
anti-vaxxers and what about tom there

1381
00:55:25,540 --> 00:55:22,880
have been a few cases in scientific

1382
00:55:26,830 --> 00:55:25,550
study where and this is quite a serious

1383
00:55:29,440 --> 00:55:26,840
one I've got here which doesn't usually

1384
00:55:31,420 --> 00:55:29,450
come from me you're talking about a lot

1385
00:55:35,290 --> 00:55:31,430
of research into pain has come from rats

1386
00:55:36,490 --> 00:55:35,300
yes and there was a lot done by German

1387
00:55:38,470 --> 00:55:36,500
scientists during the Second World War

1388
00:55:40,590 --> 00:55:38,480
on Jewish prisoners which did advance

1389
00:55:42,880 --> 00:55:40,600
science to a certain level because those

1390
00:55:44,890 --> 00:55:42,890
experiments are so unthinkable you could

1391
00:55:47,320 --> 00:55:44,900
never do them on people ethically and

1392
00:55:49,120 --> 00:55:47,330
that knowledge had to be absorbed into

1393
00:55:50,410 --> 00:55:49,130
the science literature now how do you

1394
00:55:52,390 --> 00:55:50,420
feel about that because there has been

1395
00:55:53,800 --> 00:55:52,400
some done on people and should that

1396
00:55:55,390 --> 00:55:53,810
knowledge be locked out because it was

1397
00:55:59,740 --> 00:55:55,400
just because the ethical way it was done

1398
00:56:01,690 --> 00:55:59,750
unethical I was done it's I this is a

1399
00:56:05,280 --> 00:56:01,700
bit of a personal matter for me mo had

1400
00:56:07,500 --> 00:56:05,290
family who were killed by the Germans I

1401
00:56:09,910 --> 00:56:07,510
don't know that any of them had

1402
00:56:12,310 --> 00:56:09,920
experiments done on them but they were

1403
00:56:15,100 --> 00:56:12,320
definitely perished in the Holocaust

1404
00:56:17,050 --> 00:56:15,110
murdered in the Holocaust it's a

1405
00:56:19,030 --> 00:56:17,060
difficult one you know I think you know

1406
00:56:20,590 --> 00:56:19,040
in one sense you might say the

1407
00:56:23,200 --> 00:56:20,600
information is already there not to use

1408
00:56:25,360 --> 00:56:23,210
it would be contrary to the would be

1409
00:56:28,330 --> 00:56:25,370
disrespectful to the victims on the

1410
00:56:30,930 --> 00:56:28,340
other hand if you use it it's it's

1411
00:56:32,830 --> 00:56:30,940
almost like it's dirty information so i

1412
00:56:35,980 --> 00:56:32,840
don't know it's a difficult one i must

1413
00:56:36,380 --> 00:56:35,990
say i don't have a clear opinion on that

1414
00:56:40,130 --> 00:56:36,390
I'd

1415
00:56:43,039 --> 00:56:40,140
no that a clear opinion is actually

1416
00:56:44,539 --> 00:56:43,049
possible except me to say I'm sorry more

1417
00:56:45,680 --> 00:56:44,549
than you know I apologize to pop it on

1418
00:56:47,720 --> 00:56:45,690
you because because when you mentioned

1419
00:56:49,819 --> 00:56:47,730
pain I remembered back to those

1420
00:56:51,700 --> 00:56:49,829
experiments are read about and how a lot

1421
00:56:54,529 --> 00:56:51,710
of that has been used in high altitude

1422
00:56:56,269 --> 00:56:54,539
theory particularly post the war when

1423
00:56:57,829 --> 00:56:56,279
the Americans were going up high and I

1424
00:56:59,509 --> 00:56:57,839
just think it that there's an

1425
00:57:02,930 --> 00:56:59,519
interesting quandary for science because

1426
00:57:05,120 --> 00:57:02,940
it's it's it's not bad science but it is

1427
00:57:06,829 --> 00:57:05,130
bad behavior yeah but a lot of a lot of

1428
00:57:08,059 --> 00:57:06,839
fez oily was a lot of it was also bad

1429
00:57:09,670 --> 00:57:08,069
science because they believed for

1430
00:57:11,750 --> 00:57:09,680
example the jews were different

1431
00:57:13,339 --> 00:57:11,760
biologically and you know that certain

1432
00:57:15,170 --> 00:57:13,349
things some of their science was simply

1433
00:57:17,240 --> 00:57:15,180
crap science because of because of their

1434
00:57:19,609 --> 00:57:17,250
ideology and we've seen that where I

1435
00:57:21,230 --> 00:57:19,619
ideology or we will always kill science

1436
00:57:23,630 --> 00:57:21,240
and I just mentioned that you talk and

1437
00:57:25,309 --> 00:57:23,640
that politics is not evidence-based we

1438
00:57:27,140 --> 00:57:25,319
see that where Pollock politician will

1439
00:57:30,440 --> 00:57:27,150
generally ignore evidence when it suits

1440
00:57:32,390 --> 00:57:30,450
them so I politics is its own problem in

1441
00:57:34,099 --> 00:57:32,400
terms of what you've just mentioned

1442
00:57:36,130 --> 00:57:34,109
which is very difficult question I think

1443
00:57:38,180 --> 00:57:36,140
after the war there were a lot of

1444
00:57:40,069 --> 00:57:38,190
scientists and scientific organizations

1445
00:57:43,670 --> 00:57:40,079
that made a conscious decision not to

1446
00:57:45,319 --> 00:57:43,680
use this this data so it's not like you

1447
00:57:47,509 --> 00:57:45,329
know some information was used some of

1448
00:57:49,370 --> 00:57:47,519
the data was used but a lot of it wasn't

1449
00:57:51,799 --> 00:57:49,380
and never will be you know a lot of it

1450
00:57:53,359 --> 00:57:51,809
was lost but you also have to how do you

1451
00:57:55,400 --> 00:57:53,369
distinguish between water was bad

1452
00:57:56,839 --> 00:57:55,410
science based on ideology and what

1453
00:57:58,730 --> 00:57:56,849
wasn't a so there are all kinds of

1454
00:58:01,640 --> 00:57:58,740
practical questions about that as well

1455
00:58:03,140 --> 00:58:01,650
as the legitimate moral questions about

1456
00:58:06,440 --> 00:58:03,150
whether you use the results of such

1457
00:58:09,529 --> 00:58:06,450
heinous heinous crimes and and again

1458
00:58:11,210 --> 00:58:09,539
this comes up with questions like leaps

1459
00:58:12,710 --> 00:58:11,220
like the atomic bomb and the choice to

1460
00:58:14,180 --> 00:58:12,720
make that weapon where the if the

1461
00:58:15,650 --> 00:58:14,190
science made it possible and the

1462
00:58:17,660 --> 00:58:15,660
decision to make it was a political one

1463
00:58:19,069 --> 00:58:17,670
you know science makes a lot of things

1464
00:58:21,650 --> 00:58:19,079
possible the fact that something is

1465
00:58:23,839 --> 00:58:21,660
possible does not mean that it has to be

1466
00:58:25,970 --> 00:58:23,849
resistance in a certain way in the end

1467
00:58:28,069 --> 00:58:25,980
for example with with the atomic bomb

1468
00:58:30,920 --> 00:58:28,079
the decision was made by politicians the

1469
00:58:33,349 --> 00:58:30,930
decision to drop the bomb on Japan

1470
00:58:34,910 --> 00:58:33,359
that's definitely the second one well or

1471
00:58:37,120 --> 00:58:34,920
both of them but definitely the second

1472
00:58:40,160 --> 00:58:37,130
one that was made by politicians

1473
00:58:42,440 --> 00:58:40,170
scientists did create the possibility

1474
00:58:44,240 --> 00:58:42,450
for politicians to make that decision on

1475
00:58:46,190 --> 00:58:44,250
the other hand they also created nuclear

1476
00:58:47,450 --> 00:58:46,200
power which or did a lot of good things

1477
00:58:49,520 --> 00:58:47,460
and you know what in we

1478
00:58:51,350 --> 00:58:49,530
have rat poison which kills rats but you

1479
00:58:54,680 --> 00:58:51,360
know what it also kills people if they

1480
00:58:59,360 --> 00:58:54,690
take it z you know you can't science at

1481
00:59:00,710 --> 00:58:59,370
its purest has to be without morals ok

1482
00:59:02,540 --> 00:59:00,720
pure science it doesn't mean that the

1483
00:59:03,920 --> 00:59:02,550
scientists have to work without morals

1484
00:59:06,560 --> 00:59:03,930
that that is absolutely not what I'm

1485
00:59:07,790 --> 00:59:06,570
saying but science itself has to be free

1486
00:59:09,980 --> 00:59:07,800
of morals you just want to know whether

1487
00:59:12,440 --> 00:59:09,990
something is true or not an advanced

1488
00:59:14,480 --> 00:59:12,450
knowledge now the read the good thing

1489
00:59:15,770 --> 00:59:14,490
about the fact that science does not

1490
00:59:18,050 --> 00:59:15,780
live in a vacuum in today's society

1491
00:59:20,300 --> 00:59:18,060
around it the society can take care of

1492
00:59:22,250 --> 00:59:20,310
making sure that bad things don't happen

1493
00:59:23,690 --> 00:59:22,260
or the bet you know sometimes society

1494
00:59:25,850 --> 00:59:23,700
obviously makes bad decisions a bad

1495
00:59:27,830 --> 00:59:25,860
things do happen but in general I don't

1496
00:59:29,780 --> 00:59:27,840
think it's the role of science per se of

1497
00:59:31,460 --> 00:59:29,790
scientific investigation to make

1498
00:59:33,020 --> 00:59:31,470
decisions about moral questions about

1499
00:59:35,420 --> 00:59:33,030
what neat what what should or should not

1500
00:59:37,040 --> 00:59:35,430
be done and you mentioned that you had a

1501
00:59:38,600 --> 00:59:37,050
big comeuppance yourself when you were

1502
00:59:40,520 --> 00:59:38,610
talking about the rats in the pain and

1503
00:59:42,050 --> 00:59:40,530
you met a professor who knew all about

1504
00:59:43,490 --> 00:59:42,060
this and it was his field and he

1505
00:59:46,190 --> 00:59:43,500
convinced you very quickly that you were

1506
00:59:48,470 --> 00:59:46,200
wrong and that's something that people

1507
00:59:49,940 --> 00:59:48,480
can't learn to a bet okay I've been

1508
00:59:51,800 --> 00:59:49,950
wrong about a change a lot of people

1509
00:59:54,500 --> 00:59:51,810
can't do that easily I didn't do that

1510
00:59:57,170 --> 00:59:54,510
easily he wasn't easy it was it was it

1511
00:59:59,990 --> 00:59:57,180
was fairly quick but he wasn't easy

1512
01:00:03,560 --> 01:00:00,000
because I i had that belief for a very

1513
01:00:04,850 --> 01:00:03,570
very long time and I was very convinced

1514
01:00:06,560 --> 01:00:04,860
of it you know anybody who knows me

1515
01:00:08,630 --> 01:00:06,570
knows I have strong opinions you know

1516
01:00:10,220 --> 01:00:08,640
but the thing is I have strong opinions

1517
01:00:11,870 --> 01:00:10,230
but I'm willing to change them when

1518
01:00:13,190 --> 01:00:11,880
presented with contrary evidence and

1519
01:00:15,470 --> 01:00:13,200
that was one such case there are other

1520
01:00:17,810 --> 01:00:15,480
cases I chose to tell that story but

1521
01:00:19,160 --> 01:00:17,820
there are the stories and and just one

1522
01:00:21,740 --> 01:00:19,170
last question when people ask you to

1523
01:00:22,850 --> 01:00:21,750
explain in one sentence what being a

1524
01:00:24,830 --> 01:00:22,860
skeptic is all about what i normally

1525
01:00:27,170 --> 01:00:24,840
confront them with or what you offer to

1526
01:00:29,120 --> 01:00:27,180
them I say that it's about seeking the

1527
01:00:50,190 --> 01:00:29,130
evidence and forming your opinions based

1528
01:00:54,250 --> 01:00:52,540
astronomy cast it takes a fact space

1529
01:00:56,320 --> 01:00:54,260
journey through the costumes as it

1530
01:00:58,990 --> 01:00:56,330
offers listeners weekly discussions on

1531
01:01:01,870 --> 01:00:59,000
astronomical topics ranging from planets

1532
01:01:04,360 --> 01:01:01,880
to cosmology hosted by Fraser Cain of

1533
01:01:05,230 --> 01:01:04,370
Universe Today and myself dr. Pamela gay

1534
01:01:07,900 --> 01:01:05,240
of southern illinois university

1535
01:01:09,760 --> 01:01:07,910
edwardsville this show brings the

1536
01:01:12,190 --> 01:01:09,770
questions of an avid astronomy lover

1537
01:01:14,290 --> 01:01:12,200
directly to an astronomer together

1538
01:01:15,820 --> 01:01:14,300
Fraser and I explore what is known and

1539
01:01:18,580 --> 01:01:15,830
being discovered about the universe

1540
01:01:20,680 --> 01:01:18,590
around us join us each week as we take a

1541
01:01:31,910 --> 01:01:20,690
fax space journey through the cosmos at

1542
01:01:31,920 --> 01:01:36,009
Oh

1543
01:01:41,719 --> 01:01:39,799
okay saunders in 21 thank you for

1544
01:01:44,210 --> 01:01:41,729
listening to the skeptic zone may not

1545
01:01:46,910 --> 01:01:44,220
thank you for maintaining station here

1546
01:01:49,009 --> 01:01:46,920
with me in the corridor outside the pub

1547
01:01:50,989 --> 01:01:49,019
and i just wanna remind people to when i

1548
01:01:52,759 --> 01:01:50,999
go to tam i'll also be throwing in an

1549
01:01:55,249 --> 01:01:52,769
extra question to most people about what

1550
01:01:57,859 --> 01:01:55,259
music they like and creating a podcast

1551
01:02:00,019 --> 01:01:57,869
called the music of tam 10 and if you

1552
01:02:02,180 --> 01:02:00,029
wonder what that might sound like just

1553
01:02:03,710 --> 01:02:02,190
google the music of town australia i did

1554
01:02:06,109 --> 01:02:03,720
a podcast or i spoke to the whole bunch

1555
01:02:07,430 --> 01:02:06,119
of skeptics at australia's tam and asked

1556
01:02:09,289 --> 01:02:07,440
them what my kind of music they like and

1557
01:02:10,940 --> 01:02:09,299
I put that music into the podcast so

1558
01:02:12,920 --> 01:02:10,950
google that and you'll you'll hear might

1559
01:02:14,900 --> 01:02:12,930
hear someone you know you might you

1560
01:02:16,460 --> 01:02:14,910
might i did enjoy that may note i really

1561
01:02:18,979 --> 01:02:16,470
enjoyed your interviews from cam

1562
01:02:22,069 --> 01:02:18,989
australia and surely that's just a taste

1563
01:02:24,229 --> 01:02:22,079
of what's to come in town las vegas just

1564
01:02:26,180 --> 01:02:24,239
the taste until next week listeners

1565
01:02:27,859 --> 01:02:26,190
thank you again may nod this is Richard

1566
01:02:30,950 --> 01:02:27,869
Saunders signing off from a strange

1567
01:02:32,690 --> 01:02:30,960
little corridor outside a pub in Sydney

1568
01:02:39,019 --> 01:02:32,700
Australia it's funny everyone seems to

1569
01:02:43,239 --> 01:02:39,029
know Richards name you've been listening

1570
01:02:47,900 --> 01:02:43,249
to the skeptic zone visit her website at